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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reduce tax on Social Security | 0% | −2 pts | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| End Tax on Tips | 100% | +7 pts | +14 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Debt Ceiling lifted/abolished | 100% | +1 pts | +4 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| EV tax credit cuts | 100% | 0 pts | +18 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| SALT cap increase | 100% | 0 pts | +7 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Extension of income tax cut for High Earners | 100% | +1 pts | +19 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 475d | 0x1C7Ea49c1B1badD8cdDf6fBD3e2cbCaf7fe3 | EV tax credit cuts | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,857 | +$4 +0.1% | 4 |
| 475d | Ordon | Extension of income tax cut for High Earners | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,880 | +$4 +0.1% | 4 |
| 475d | Ordon | SALT cap increase | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,140 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 475d | 0x1C7Ea49c1B1badD8cdDf6fBD3e2cbCaf7fe3 | Reduce tax on Social Security | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,759 | +$8 +0.2% | 4 |
| 476d | rwo | End Tax on Tips | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,630 | +$4 +0.1% | 4 |
| 476d |  DirkDiggler672 fills | End Tax on Tips | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $4,728 | +$30 +0.6% | 4 |
| 476d |  Funfzig | Debt Ceiling lifted/abolished | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,880 | +$4 +0.1% | 4 |
| 477d | The Spirit of Ukraine>UMA | Reduce tax on Social Security | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,049 | +$32 +3.1% | 4 |
| 477d | The Spirit of Ukraine>UMA | EV tax credit cuts | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,592 | +$10 +0.7% | 4 |
| 477d | The Spirit of Ukraine>UMA | End Tax on Tips | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,799 | +$10 +0.6% | 4 |
| 500d | Funfzig | End Tax on Tips | BuyYes67¢ → 100¢ | $1,927 | +$950 +49% | 4 |
| 518d |  zalkida | Reduce tax on Social Security | BuyNo86¢ → 100¢ | $3,085 | +$503 +16% | 4 |
| 518d | Krezin | Reduce tax on Social Security | SellYes28¢ → 0¢ | $14,937 | +$14,937 +100% | — |
| 518d | Bryxen | Reduce tax on Social Security | BuyNo71¢ → 100¢ | $37,876 | +$15,471 +41% | 4 |
| 519d | Lioraeth | Reduce tax on Social Security | SellYes47¢ → 0¢ | $13,266 | +$13,266 +100% | — |
| 519d | Tysera | Reduce tax on Social Security | BuyNo52¢ → 100¢ | $14,678 | +$13,549 +92% | 4 |
| 520d | 33rrv | Reduce tax on Social Security | SellNo44¢ → 100¢ | $12,060 | −$15,350 −127% | — |
| 520d | Calenor | Reduce tax on Social Security | BuyYes57¢ → 0¢ | $15,624 | −$15,624 −100% | 4 |
This is a market group over what will be present in the next reconciliation bill signed by Donald Trump.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for Reduce tax on Social Security means the market gives it about 0%.