Polymarket · WorldClosed
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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| God 3+ times | 100% | +34 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Trump / President 20+ times | 0% | −38 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Ukraine / Russia 5+ times | 0% | −59 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Big Beautiful Bill | 0% | −23 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Golden Dome / Iron Dome | 0% | −25 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| B-2 | 0% | −37 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Leadership | 0% | −90 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Peace Through Strength | 0% | −32 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Drone / AI / Artificial Intelligence | 0% | −40 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Nobel / Prize | 0% | −23 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Israel / Gaza | 0% | −66 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| King / Dear Friend | 0% | −53 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Ass | 0% | −27 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Bitcoin / Crypto | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
JD Vance is scheduled to deliver remarks to US troops stationed at Royal Air Force Fairford in England on August 13 (see https://x.com/robcrilly/status/1954629142324142382). This market will resolve to "Yes" if JD Vance says the listed term during his appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market. Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). Instances where full name is mentioned in a market requiring the mention of that person's first or last name a specified number of times, the full name will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about "Joe / Biden 5+ times," a mention of "Joe Biden" will count once). This market is explicitly about the scheduled remarks on August 13. Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of this event will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the event contains a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market. If this event is definitively cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by August 13, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source is the audio/video of the listed event.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for God 3+ times means the market gives it about 100%.