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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Government 3+ times | 100% | +58 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| DHS / ICE | 100% | +16 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| People 10+ times | 100% | +16 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Iran | 100% | +48 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Epstein / Pedophile | 100% | +31 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Congress | 0% | −90 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| AI / Artificial intelligence | 100% | +28 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Our Main Story Tonight | 100% | +4 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Trump 5+ times | 100% | +24 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Ridiculous | 100% | +48 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| War | 100% | +41 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Europe | 100% | +69 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Israel / Gaza | 100% | +71 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Immigration | 100% | +26 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Mainstream Media | 100% | +73 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| HBO | 0% | −50 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Attorney General | 100% | +66 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Trans / Transgender | 0% | −50 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Corruption | 0% | −52 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Healthcare / Insurance | 0% | −27 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Investigation / Prosecution | 100% | +48 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 242d |  Bertapotamous | Epstein / Pedophile | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,186 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 243d | ForFamily | War | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,998 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 243d |  Forch | Iran | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,231 | +$65 +5.3% | 20 |
| 248d | messiRona2 fills | Government 3+ times | SellYes50¢ → 100¢ | $39,600 | −$39,600 −100% | — |
| 248d | messiRona | Government 3+ times | BuyYes49¢ → 100¢ | $19,453 | +$20,247 +104% | 23 |
| 248d | Jeffrey1233213 | Government 3+ times | BuyNo49¢ → 0¢ | $19,355 | −$19,355 −100% | 23 |
bjprolo100 shares
piattella5 sharesJohn Oliver is scheduled to host Last Week Tonight on Sunday, February 22, 2026 at 11PM ET: https://www.youtube.com/@LastWeekTonight This market will resolve to "Yes" if John Oliver says the listed term at any point during the initial broadcast of this episode. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". If clips of old episodes or prerecorded videos are aired where John Oliver is speaking, those clips will count toward this market's resolution. Commercials which are not part of the show itself will not qualify toward this market's resolution. Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market. Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once). AI-generated audio or video will not count towards the resolution of this market. Censored instances of a given term that cannot be heard in full will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If this appearance is definitively cancelled by John Oliver or HBO, or otherwise is not released by February 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be audio/video of the appearance.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for Government 3+ times means the market gives it about 100%.