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Polymarket · CultureClosed
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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket / Bet | 100% | −8 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| ChatGPT 10+ times | 0% | +4 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| OpenAI 4+ times | 0% | +13 pts | — | — · 1¢ | — | ended |
| Sora 3+ times | 0% | +9 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| API / AGI | 0% | −9 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Elon / Musk | 0% | +3 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Nvidia / Bubble | 0% | −4 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Meme | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Silicon Valley / Nerd | 0% | +3 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Deep Fake | 0% | +13 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Terminator / Movie | 0% | +9 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Robot / Robotic | 0% | −8 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Creativity / Artist | 0% | +5 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Car / Tesla | 0% | +5 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Trump / Election | 0% | −5 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | 0% | +3 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 319d | Bozodi | Deep Fake | SellNo>99¢ | $1,579 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 319d |  ZhangMuZhi- | Car / Tesla | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,694 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 319d |  arjennnnn2 fills | Car / Tesla | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,490 | +$11 +0.3% | 20 |
| 319d | wubddh | API / AGI | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,620 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 319d | wubddh | Elon / Musk | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,605 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 319d |  stop.gambling | Car / Tesla | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,211 | −$22 −1.0% | — |
| 319d | lan031043 | Car / Tesla | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,014 | +$11 +1.1% | 20 |
| 319d |  0x6e8f80ca0cddb8d3f207dc5147ac0e6062ae162 | Car / Tesla | BuyNo89¢ → 100¢ | $1,178 | +$143 +12% | 20 |
| 319d | AnonymousElephant693 fills | Car / Tesla | BuyYes74¢ → 0¢ | $4,947 | −$4,947 −100% | 20 |
| 319d | username123333 fills | Car / Tesla | BuyYes71¢ → 0¢ | $3,978 | −$3,978 −100% | 20 |
| 319d | joelembiid | Car / Tesla | BuyYes76¢ → 0¢ | $1,851 | −$1,851 −100% | 20 |
| 319d |  PaddyAlpha3 fills | Car / Tesla | BuyYes81¢ → 0¢ | $4,914 | −$4,914 −100% | 20 |
| 319d | riskofnorisk2 fills | Car / Tesla | BuyYes80¢ → 0¢ | $2,617 | −$2,617 −100% | 20 |
| 319d |  Dragontree | Car / Tesla | BuyYes79¢ → 0¢ | $1,571 | −$1,571 −100% | 20 |
| 319d |  Birdof | Creativity / Artist | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,002 | +$10 +1.0% | 20 |
| 319d | Bozodi | Deep Fake | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,565 | +$16 +1.0% | 20 |
| 319d | Birdof | Trump / Election | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,002 | +$10 +1.0% | 20 |
| 319d | Birdof | Car / Tesla | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,039 | +$10 +1.0% | 20 |
| 319d | Birdof | Polymarket / Bet | BuyNo99¢ → 0¢ | $1,200 | −$1,200 −100% | 20 |
| 319d |  0xf1434f7d6de30bfbbdfeadd075a1f40f | Sora 3+ times | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,224 | +$12 +1.0% | 20 |
| 319d | 0xf1434f7d6de30bfbbdfeadd075a1f40f | OpenAI 4+ times | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,073 | +$11 +1.0% | 20 |
| 321d | buduluuu11222 fills | Robot / Robotic | BuyNo50¢ → 100¢ | $3,788 | +$3,788 +100% | 28 |
| 321d | DigoMi2 fills | OpenAI 4+ times | BuyYes50¢ → 0¢ | $3,774 | −$3,774 −100% | 28 |
| 321d | Kapaonly2 fills | Terminator / Movie | BuyYes50¢ → 0¢ | $3,743 | −$3,743 −100% | 28 |
| 321d | Akhilsnair172 fills | Terminator / Movie | BuyYes50¢ → 0¢ | $3,788 | −$3,788 −100% | 28 |
Girthquake0130 shares
krsna100 sharesSam Altman is scheduled to appear on the December 8 broadcast of The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon: https://www.theverge.com/news/837942/sam-altman-is-going-on-the-tonight-show-next-week This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sam Altman says the listed term at any point during this episode. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". If clips of old episodes or prerecorded videos are aired where Sam Altman is speaking, those clips will count toward this market's resolution. Commercials which are not part of the show itself will not qualify toward this market's resolution. AI-generated audio or video will not count towards this market's resolution. Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market. Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once). If this appearance is definitively cancelled by Sam Altman or NBC, or otherwise is not released by December 9, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be audio/video of the appearance.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for Polymarket / Bet means the market gives it about 100%.