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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 | 67% | +20 pts | −10 pts | 65¢ · 68¢ (3¢) | $475 | in 158d |
| 2.25–2.5 | 31% | −5 pts | +9 pts | 30¢ · 31¢ (1¢) | $738 | in 158d |
| 2.0–2.25 | 2% | −2 pts | 0 pts | 1¢ · 3¢ (2¢) | $7.2 | in 158d |
| 1.5–2.0 | <1% | 0 pts | −1 pts | <1¢ · 1¢ (1¢) | $639 | in 158d |
| Under 1.5 | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 158d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16d | Corny-Hyphenation2 fills | Over 2.5 | BuyYes74¢ → 67¢ | $2,169 | −$228 −11% | 21 |
FrozenParasite475 shares
user62781603460 shares
Hot-SkullHomelessBegger600 shares
EsperanzasDESTROYER429 shares
bogdanooo179 sharesThis market resolves based on the peak RONI — the single highest Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as published in official NOAA CPC RONI updates (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/). See each individual market for its bracket and full resolution terms. This market may resolve immediately once NOAA has published a RONI value that determines the peak: the "Over 2.5" outcome resolves "Yes" as soon as any listed season reaches +2.5°C or above. Any other outcome will not be confirmed until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value, since RONI can still rise in a later season and DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window. The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs resolution; no subsequent revision to a season's value will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, other information from NOAA may be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 67¢ for Over 2.5 means the market gives it about 67%.