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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Hegseth | 100% | +1 pts | 0 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Crypto/Bitcoin | 0% | −32 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Day One | 0% | −79 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Ukraine 3+ times | 100% | +30 pts | 0 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Hunter | 100% | +36 pts | 0 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Elon | 0% | −79 pts | 0 pts | — · 1¢ | — | ended |
| DOGE | 0% | −21 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| China 3+ times | 100% | +24 pts | 0 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Border 5+ times | 100% | +27 pts | 0 pts | 99¢ · 100¢ (1¢) | — | ended |
| Tariff 3+ times | 100% | +41 pts | 0 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Pardon | 100% | +31 pts | 0 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Israel | 100% | +13 pts | 0 pts | 100¢ · 100¢ (1¢) | — | ended |
| Kamala | 100% | +64 pts | 0 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Matt Gaetz | 0% | −26 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Tesla | 0% | −18 pts | 0 pts | — · 14¢ | — | ended |
| Tax 3+ times | 100% | +31 pts | 0 pts | 99¢ · 100¢ (1¢) | — | ended |
| Fake News | 0% | −39 pts | 0 pts | — · 14¢ | — | ended |
| Taiwan | 0% | −29 pts | 0 pts | — · 1¢ | — | ended |
| Nuclear | 0% | −58 pts | 0 pts | — · 74¢ | — | ended |
| Mexico | 100% | +16 pts | 0 pts | 99¢ · 100¢ (1¢) | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 685d |  lranon4 fills | Pete Hegseth | BuyYes>99¢ | $7,018 | +$13 +0.2% | 20 |
| 685d |  sleepy-panda2 fills | Pete Hegseth | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,493 | +$7 +0.2% | 20 |
| 685d |  Axios | Hunter | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,432 | −$10 −0.7% | — |
| 685d | lranon | Tariff 3+ times | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,059 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 685d |  trumpetplayer | Pete Hegseth | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,597 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 685d |  Euan | Pete Hegseth | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,597 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 685d |  Dropper | Crypto/Bitcoin | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,761 | +$32 +0.8% | 20 |
| 685d | Dropper | Ukraine 3+ times | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,896 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 685d | Dropper | China 3+ times | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,975 | +$40 +2.0% | 20 |
| 685d |  AgricultureSecretary | Ukraine 3+ times | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,483 | +$17 +0.7% | 20 |
| 685d | Axios | Crypto/Bitcoin | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,254 | +$24 +1.9% | 20 |
| 685d | Axios | Day One | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $3,120 | +$115 +3.7% | 20 |
| 685d | Axios | Hunter | BuyYes88¢ → 100¢ | $1,272 | +$170 +13% | 20 |
| 685d | EscalateFund2 fills | Crypto/Bitcoin | BuyNo82¢ → 100¢ | $4,873 | +$1,039 +21% | 25 |
| 685d |  Slowroasted | Ukraine 3+ times | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,046 | +$4 +0.4% | 20 |
| 685d | lranon | Pete Hegseth | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $4,172 | −$35 −0.8% | — |
| 685d | Dropper | Hunter | BuyNo57¢ → 0¢ | $1,465 | −$1,465 −100% | 20 |
| 685d | Failing-Lace | Ukraine 3+ times | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,044 | −$21 −2.0% | — |
| 685d | Dropper | Border 5+ times | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $2,655 | +$50 +1.9% | 20 |
| 685d | Dropper | Israel | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $4,109 | +$45 +1.1% | 20 |
| 685d | Dropper | Day One | BuyNo40¢ → 100¢ | $2,750 | +$4,198 +153% | 22 |
| 685d |  Debosnys2 fills | Pete Hegseth | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,253 | +$24 +0.7% | 20 |
| 685d | YunaHsiao | Crypto/Bitcoin | SellYes28¢ → 0¢ | $1,736 | +$1,736 +100% | — |
| 685d | YunaHsiao | Crypto/Bitcoin | BuyYes32¢ → 0¢ | $1,989 | −$1,989 −100% | 30 |
| 685d |  ARudeEgg2 fills | Crypto/Bitcoin | BuyNo70¢ → 100¢ | $4,060 | +$1,730 +43% | 25 |
| 685d | w1n3r | Pete Hegseth | BuyYes100¢ | $7,916 | +$40 +0.5% | 20 |
| 686d | OPMSucks | Crypto/Bitcoin | BuyNo70¢ → 100¢ | $1,447 | +$620 +43% | 28 |
| 686d | Takattacks | Elon | BuyYes87¢ → 0¢ | $1,500 | −$1,500 −100% | 23 |
| 686d |  Mr-Yolos5 fills | Crypto/Bitcoin | BuyNo79¢ → 100¢ | $8,550 | +$2,247 +26% | 23 |
| 686d | 0x1C7Ea49c1B1badD8cdDf6fBD3e2cbCaf7fe3 | Pete Hegseth | BuyYes100¢ | $1,592 | +$8 +0.5% | 20 |
| 686d | bobbers4 fills | Pete Hegseth | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $14,444 | +$238 +1.6% | 20 |
| 686d |  ExhaustedBoyBilly | Pete Hegseth | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,604 | +$6 +0.4% | 20 |
| 686d | Euan | Pete Hegseth | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,968 | −$21 −0.7% | — |
| 686d |  HuhXD | Pete Hegseth | SellYes96¢ → 100¢ | $6,347 | −$232 −3.6% | — |
| 686d | HuhXD | Pete Hegseth | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $6,512 | +$67 +1.0% | 20 |
| 686d |  MMousse | Pete Hegseth | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,225 | +$26 +2.1% | 20 |
| 686d | Fkthiscap | Crypto/Bitcoin | BuyYes33¢ → 0¢ | $1,448 | −$1,448 −100% | 26 |
| 686d | trumpetplayer | Crypto/Bitcoin | BuyNo72¢ → 100¢ | $2,880 | +$1,120 +39% | 25 |
| 687d |  Eridpnc | Crypto/Bitcoin | BuyNo91¢ → 100¢ | $1,205 | +$119 +9.9% | 22 |
This is a market group over what Donald Trump will say during his interview hosted by NBC News, scheduled to be aired on December 8 (see https://www.axios.com/2024/12/04/trump-interview-nbc-news-meet-the-press).
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for Pete Hegseth means the market gives it about 100%.