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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| India 3+ times | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | — |
| Oil | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | — |
| Hindu / Hinduism | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | — |
| Modi | 100% | — | — | 99¢ · 100¢ (1¢) | — | — |
| Trillion / Million / Billion 3+ times | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | — |
| Tariff | 100% | — | — | 99¢ · 100¢ (1¢) | — | — |
| Kash / Patel | 100% | — | — | 99¢ · 100¢ (1¢) | — | — |
| Putin | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | — |
| Russia | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | — |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 367d |  0x6e8f80ca0cddb8d3f207dc5147ac0e6062ae162 | Oil | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,992 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 367d |  Burnmoneyuser | India 3+ times | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,299 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 367d |  Infringe | India 3+ times | BuyYes>99¢ | $9,490 | +$9 +0.1% | 20 |
| 367d |  AgricultureSecretary | Modi | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,814 | +$18 +1.0% | 20 |
Donald Trump is scheduled to participate in a Diwali Celebration on October 21, 2025, at 4 PM ET (see https://rollcall.com/factbase/trump/topic/calendar/). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during his appearance at the specified event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Pluralization/possessive of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once). This market is explicitly about the scheduled event titled "Diwali Celebration" on October 21, 2025, at 4 PM E(https://rollcall.com/factbase/trump/topic/calendar/). Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of the named, scheduled event will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the events contain a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market. If this event is definitively cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by October 21, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be video of the events.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for India 3+ times means the market gives it about 100%.