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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comrade Kamala | 100% | +49 pts | 0 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| China 3+ times | 100% | +22 pts | 0 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Venezuela 3+ times | 0% | −17 pts | 0 pts | <1¢ · 1¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| World War 3 | 100% | +46 pts | 0 pts | 99¢ · >99¢ (1¢) | — | ended |
| Tampon | 0% | −56 pts | 0 pts | — · 1¢ | — | ended |
| Green New Scam | 0% | −42 pts | 0 pts | — · 1¢ | — | ended |
| Israel | 100% | +26 pts | 0 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Iran 3+ times | 100% | +50 pts | 0 pts | 100¢ · 100¢ (1¢) | — | ended |
| Putin | 100% | +34 pts | 0 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Zelensky | 0% | −55 pts | 0 pts | <1¢ · 1¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Ceasefire | 0% | −30 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Oil | 100% | +12 pts | 0 pts | 99¢ · >99¢ (1¢) | — | ended |
| Crypto/Bitcoin | 0% | −6 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Nuclear | 100% | +20 pts | 0 pts | 100¢ · 100¢ (1¢) | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 793d |  AgricultureSecretary | Venezuela 3+ times | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,425 | +$20 +0.8% | 20 |
| 793d | bama124 | Ceasefire | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,281 | +$19 +1.5% | 20 |
| 793d | ZXCVBNM-256 | China 3+ times | SellYes>99¢ | $2,759 | −$10 −0.4% | — |
| 793d | anon15652 fills | Venezuela 3+ times | BuyNo87¢ → 100¢ | $3,041 | +$456 +15% | 20 |
| 793d | anon1565 | Zelensky | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $1,031 | +$116 +11% | 20 |
| 793d | Hhkcg | Israel | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,118 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 793d |  Anon5215 | Iran 3+ times | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,173 | +$16 +1.3% | 20 |
| 793d | Anon52152 fills | China 3+ times | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $3,817 | +$223 +5.9% | 20 |
| 793d | Anon5215 | Putin | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $5,721 | +$302 +5.3% | 20 |
| 793d |  Jaded85 | Comrade Kamala | BuyYes74¢ → 100¢ | $1,400 | +$492 +35% | 20 |
| 793d |  JeffreyBezos | Comrade Kamala | BuyNo28¢ → 0¢ | $2,556 | −$2,556 −100% | 24 |
| 793d | ZXCVBNM-256 | China 3+ times | BuyYes85¢ → 100¢ | $2,664 | +$479 +18% | 20 |
| 793d |  tradeojones | Israel | BuyNo13¢ → 0¢ | $1,300 | −$1,300 −100% | 22 |
| 793d |  Hun4o | Green New Scam | BuyYes71¢ → 0¢ | $2,151 | −$2,151 −100% | 20 |
| 793d |  BuckMySalls | World War 3 | BuyYes87¢ → 100¢ | $1,690 | +$255 +15% | 24 |
| 793d | BuckMySalls | China 3+ times | BuyYes89¢ → 100¢ | $1,237 | +$153 +12% | 24 |
Donald Trump is scheduled to speak at a national security-themed event scheduled for August 21, 2024 in Asheboro, North Carolina.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for Comrade Kamala means the market gives it about 100%.