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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Border 5+ times | 100% | +27 pts | 0 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| NAFTA | 100% | +35 pts | 0 pts | >99¢ · >99¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Debate | 100% | +38 pts | 0 pts | >99¢ · >99¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Back the Blue | 0% | −36 pts | 0 pts | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| China 3+ times | 100% | +23 pts | 0 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Stolen Valor | 0% | −42 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| You Guys | 0% | −81 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Mamaw | 0% | −53 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Couch | 0% | −4 pts | 0 pts | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Tampon | 0% | −17 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Poison | 0% | −67 pts | 0 pts | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Riot | 0% | −26 pts | 0 pts | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Comrade Kamala | 0% | −30 pts | 0 pts | <1¢ · 1¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Dynamic Duo | 0% | −34 pts | 0 pts | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Fake News | 0% | −44 pts | 0 pts | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Manufacturing | 100% | +7 pts | 0 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Okay Good | 0% | −12 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 787d |  LlamaEnjoyer | Mamaw | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,070 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 787d |  seitn | Border 5+ times | SellYes>99¢ | $1,049 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 787d |  AgricultureSecretary | NAFTA | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,994 | +$6 +0.2% | 20 |
| 787d | AgricultureSecretary | Couch | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,990 | +$10 +0.2% | 20 |
| 787d |  NadyaSuleman | Border 5+ times | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,030 | −$18 −0.9% | — |
| 787d | Lfg123 | You Guys | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $6,623 | +$203 +3.1% | 20 |
| 787d |  Anon5215 | Back the Blue | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $9,900 | +$100 +1.0% | 20 |
| 787d | Anon5215 | Couch | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,434 | +$31 +2.2% | 20 |
| 787d |  mango-lassi | Back the Blue | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $3,132 | +$200 +6.4% | 20 |
| 787d | squirrel-farmer | Poison | BuyNo79¢ → 100¢ | $1,240 | +$331 +27% | 20 |
| 787d | Lfg123 | Debate | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,060 | +$31 +1.0% | 20 |
| 787d |  carp | Border 5+ times | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $4,614 | +$94 +2.0% | 20 |
| 787d | kingfisher | NAFTA | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $8,620 | +$87 +1.0% | 20 |
| 787d | LlamaEnjoyer | Debate | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $2,426 | +$155 +6.4% | 20 |
| 787d | 😏😏😏 | Debate | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $2,807 | +$193 +6.9% | 20 |
| 787d | squirrel-farmer | Stolen Valor | BuyNo68¢ → 100¢ | $1,326 | +$624 +47% | 20 |
| 788d | NadyaSuleman | Border 5+ times | BuyYes70¢ → 100¢ | $1,395 | +$602 +43% | 30 |
This is a market group over what J.D. Vance will say in his rally in Michigan scheduled for August 27, 2024.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for Border 5+ times means the market gives it about 100%.