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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 15 | 100% | +11 pts | +79 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| November 30 | 100% | +2 pts | +22 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 346d |  Allinnothing | November 15 | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,495 | +$6 +0.1% | 4 |
| 346d |  PRNewswire2 fills | November 15 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,478 | +$5 +0.1% | 4 |
Adelita Grijalva, a Democrat who won the September 23, 2025, special election for Arizona’s 7th Congressional District, holds the modern record for the longest delay between election and swearing-in to the U.S. House. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Adelita Grijalva is officially sworn in as the member of the U.S. House of Representatives for Arizona’s 7th Congressional District by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” To qualify, Adelita Grijalva must have publicly and officially taken the oath of office administered by the Speaker of the House or a designated presiding officer during a recognized House session within this market’s timeframe, or otherwise had a House-recognized off-floor oath administered. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. House of Representatives or the Office of the Speaker; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for November 15 means the market gives it about 100%.