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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | +1 pts | +5 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended | |
| OpenAI | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| xAI | 0% | 0 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Anthropic | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Meta | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| DeepSeek | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Alibaba | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Company B | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Company C | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Company D | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Company E | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Company F | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Company G | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Company H | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Company I | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Other | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 480d | lottzhang | SellYes>99¢ | $1,109 | −$1 −0.1% | — | |
| 481d | aviato | SellYes>99¢ | $1,994 | −$6 −0.3% | — | |
| 481d | samemma | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,878 | +$6 +0.3% | 4 | |
| 484d | Pointysquares | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,195 | −$24 −2.0% | — | |
| 484d | PrimaryPartner2 fills | xAI | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $17,320 | +$487 +2.8% | 4 |
| 486d | cigarettes3 fills | OpenAI | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,988 | +$60 +1.2% | 4 |
| 486d | cigarettes2 fills | xAI | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $3,740 | +$60 +1.6% | 4 |
| 486d | nosik | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $2,675 | +$55 +2.0% | 4 | |
| 486d | royal412 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $2,519 | +$54 +2.1% | 4 | |
| 486d | cigarettes2 fills | Meta | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,815 | +$3 +0.1% | 4 |
| 486d | olih_ - 244152 fills | xAI | BuyNo91¢ → 100¢ | $2,828 | +$265 +9.4% | 4 |
| 487d | nndmg | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $4,928 | +$249 +5.1% | 4 | |
| 487d | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,900 | +$100 +5.3% | 4 | ||
| 488d | tsuikei | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $4,668 | +$246 +5.3% | 4 | |
| 488d | 025d | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,438 | +$76 +5.3% | 4 | |
| 488d | DiversifiedBS | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,055 | +$56 +5.3% | 4 | |
| 488d | lottzhang | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $1,049 | +$61 +5.8% | 4 | |
| 488d | SaylorMoon | xAI | SellNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,872 | −$99 −5.3% | — |
| 488d | olih_ - 24415 | xAI | SellNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,998 | −$105 −5.2% | — |
| 489d | Submissive-DoughNew account | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $1,479 | +$94 +6.4% | 4 | |
| 492d | xAI | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,425 | +$75 +5.2% | 4 | |
| 494d | MarkLuis | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $1,687 | +$132 +7.8% | 4 | |
| 495d | cigarettes | Anthropic | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,244 | +$4 +0.3% | 4 |
| 495d | cigarettes | DeepSeek | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,244 | +$4 +0.3% | 4 |
| 495d | amorriscode | OpenAI | BuyYes8¢ → 0¢ | $1,049 | −$1,049 −100% | 4 |
| 497d | SellYes91¢ → 100¢ | $1,012 | −$100 −9.9% | — | ||
| 497d | Laodlwff | Meta | SellNo>99¢ | $1,437 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 497d | Laodlwff | Meta | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,438 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 497d | BuyYes91¢ → 100¢ | $11,221 | +$1,098 +9.8% | 4 | ||
| 499d | boig | SellYes88¢ → 100¢ | $1,030 | −$140 −14% | — | |
| 500d | Funnyboy | SellYes85¢ → 100¢ | $4,234 | −$766 −18% | — | |
| 502d | Monster24 | OpenAI | SellNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,063 | −$43 −4.0% | — |
| 502d | emoneyy | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $5,000 | +$257 +5.1% | 4 | |
| 504d | y🥇888 | xAI | SellNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,526 | −$79 −5.2% | — |
| 505d | SellYes85¢ → 100¢ | $1,700 | −$300 −18% | — | ||
| 505d | SellYes84¢ → 100¢ | $1,091 | −$207 −19% | — | ||
| 505d | Pointysquares2 fills | BuyYes76¢ → 100¢ | $3,539 | +$1,099 +31% | 4 | |
| 506d | BuyYes78¢ → 100¢ | $1,257 | +$348 +28% | 4 | ||
| 508d | Anthropic | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,911 | −$35 −1.2% | — | |
| 508d | Anthropic | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,458 | +$38 +2.6% | 4 | |
| 508d | FallLine | DeepSeek | SellNo86¢ → 100¢ | $1,177 | −$189 −16% | — |
| 508d | Anthropic | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,457 | −$43 −3.0% | — | |
| 509d | Mullwig | SellYes69¢ → 100¢ | $1,245 | −$556 −45% | — | |
| 510d | Monster24 | OpenAI | BuyNo91¢ → 100¢ | $1,006 | +$100 +9.9% | 4 |
| 520d | Clarissa579 | Alibaba | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,008 | +$9 +0.9% | 4 |
| 520d | Anthropic | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $2,402 | +$201 +8.4% | 4 | |
| 521d | xAI | BuyNo82¢ → 100¢ | $2,065 | +$456 +22% | 4 | |
| 522d | Tavien | SellYes53¢ → 100¢ | $13,893 | −$12,321 −89% | — | |
| 522d | Tavien | BuyYes52¢ → 100¢ | $13,631 | +$12,583 +92% | 4 | |
| 523d | Obrya | SellNo49¢ → 0¢ | $13,632 | +$13,632 +100% | — | |
| 523d | Triryn | BuyYes52¢ → 100¢ | $14,468 | +$13,355 +92% | 4 | |
| 529d | Drovyn | SellYes51¢ → 100¢ | $16,269 | −$15,631 −96% | — | |
| 529d | Drovyn | BuyYes53¢ → 100¢ | $16,908 | +$14,994 +89% | 4 | |
| 530d | Bidayat | xAI | SellYes20¢ → 0¢ | $2,109 | +$2,109 +100% | — |
| 530d | Bidayat2 fills | xAI | BuyYes28¢ → 0¢ | $2,805 | −$2,805 −100% | 8 |
| 538d | BuyYes48¢ → 100¢ | $1,336 | +$1,454 +109% | 4 | ||
| 545d | xAI | BuyYes19¢ → 0¢ | $2,142 | −$2,142 −100% | 8 | |
| 557d | rrfd34 | SellYes34¢ → 100¢ | $11,550 | −$22,421 −194% | — | |
| 558d | Amdaris | BuyNo64¢ → 0¢ | $21,749 | −$21,749 −100% | 4 | |
| 558d | bunny65 | Anthropic | SellNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,372 | −$77 −5.6% | — |
This is a negrisk market group over which will be the top AI model on June 30, 2025, 12:00 PM ET.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for Google means the market gives it about 100%.