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Polymarket · Tech & ScienceClosed
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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OpenAI | 100% | +7 pts | +15 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| 0% | — | −9 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended | |
| Anthropic | 0% | −2 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Alibaba | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Z.ai | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| xAI | 0% | −1 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| DeepSeek | 0% | −1 pts | +1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Moonshot | 0% | −1 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Mistral | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Company A | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Company B | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Company C | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Company D | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Company E | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Company F | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Company G | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Company H | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Other | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 207d |  noreasapa | OpenAI | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,830 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 209d | Santeau - 34571 | OpenAI | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,133 | −$19 −1.7% | — |
| 212d |  95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04 | DeepSeek | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,386 | +$4 +0.3% | 4 |
| 212d | Santeau - 34571 | OpenAI | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,117 | +$35 +3.2% | 4 |
| 212d |  libratus1 | OpenAI | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,131 | +$60 +5.3% | 4 |
| 213d | aikko | DeepSeek | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,040 | +$11 +1.0% | 4 |
| 213d | RaydenLu | xAI | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,100 | +$11 +1.0% | 4 |
| 213d | SloanHarper | xAI | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,095 | +$11 +1.0% | 4 |
| 213d | CamillaGonzales | xAI | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,107 | +$11 +1.0% | 4 |
| 213d | AndreeJensen | xAI | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,107 | +$11 +1.0% | 4 |
| 213d | LevarBradshaw | xAI | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,107 | +$11 +1.0% | 4 |
| 213d | KaidenWarner | xAI | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,107 | +$11 +1.0% | 4 |
| 213d | MuhammadHanson | xAI | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,107 | +$11 +1.0% | 4 |
| 213d | KyraMurillo | xAI | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,107 | +$11 +1.0% | 4 |
| 225d | Outlandish-OceanNew account | Anthropic | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,524 | −$44 −2.9% | — |
| 225d | Apprehensive-AttachmentNew account | Anthropic | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,199 | −$35 −2.9% | — |
| 225d | Roasted-MariachiNew account | Anthropic | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,579 | −$45 −2.9% | — |
| 225d | Blissful-OfferNew account | Anthropic | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,044 | −$30 −2.9% | — |
| 225d | Apprehensive-AttachmentNew account | Anthropic | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,198 | +$36 +3.0% | 5 |
| 225d | Outlandish-OceanNew account | Anthropic | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,523 | +$45 +3.0% | 5 |
| 225d | Roasted-MariachiNew account | Anthropic | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,577 | +$47 +3.0% | 5 |
| 225d | Giddy-SuitNew account | Anthropic | SellNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,691 | −$67 −4.0% | — |
| 225d | Variable-JumpNew account | Anthropic | SellNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,491 | −$58 −3.9% | — |
| 225d | Daring-SubsidenceNew account | Anthropic | SellNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,949 | −$77 −4.0% | — |
| 225d | Giddy-SuitNew account | Anthropic | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,689 | +$69 +4.1% | 6 |
| 225d | Variable-JumpNew account | Anthropic | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,489 | +$60 +4.1% | 6 |
| 225d | Daring-SubsidenceNew account | Anthropic | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,947 | +$79 +4.1% | 6 |
| 226d | Ethical-ExitNew account | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,520 | −$31 −2.0% | — | |
| 226d | Cooperative-InfixNew account | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,319 | −$27 −2.0% | — | |
| 226d | Silky-Fit-InfrastructureNew account | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,426 | +$29 +2.0% | 5 | |
| 226d | Ethical-ExitNew account | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,520 | +$31 +2.0% | 5 | |
| 226d | Half-AddictionNew account | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,496 | −$32 −2.1% | — | |
| 226d | Teeming-ConfirmationNew account | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,215 | −$26 −2.1% | — | |
| 230d | Wet-Icicle | xAI | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,545 | +$20 +1.3% | 4 |
| 230d | Burdensome-Godmother | xAI | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,557 | +$21 +1.3% | 4 |
| 230d | Corrupt-Chow | xAI | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,537 | +$20 +1.3% | 4 |
| 231d | purpleshine74 | Mistral | SellNo>99¢ | $2,096 | −$4 −0.2% | — |
| 231d | purpleshine74 | Mistral | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,098 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 231d | Linslav | OpenAI | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $1,200 | +$100 +8.3% | 4 |
808-dior867 sharesThis market will resolve to the company that owns the model with the highest “Mathematics Average” score on the LiveBench AI model leaderboard (https://livebench.ai/#/), on March 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. If two models are tied for the highest LiveBench Mathematics Average score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order. The primary source of resolution for this market will be LiveBench’s AI leaderboard, specifically the “Mathematics Average” category, found at livebench.ai. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the LiveBench AI leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for OpenAI means the market gives it about 100%.