Polymarket · WorldClosed
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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel | 100% | +62 pts | +19 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| India | 0% | +1 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Mexico | 0% | −34 pts | −20 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| China | 0% | −1 pts | −8 pts | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Australia | 0% | +2 pts | −1 pts | — · 1¢ | — | ended |
| Canada | 0% | 0 pts | −8 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 296d | China | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,355 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 | |
| 296d | Canada | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,997 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 | |
| 296d | Australia | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,826 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 | |
| 296d | India | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,471 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and the listed country/entity by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. Agreements to extend tariff exemptions will qualify if announced as an individualized extension. However, tariff exemptions which are announced as part of a class of exemptions and do not reflect individual deals - such as Trump’s April 9 pause on all reciprocal tariffs other than those on China - will not qualify (see: https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/04/modifying-reciprocal-tariff-rates-to-reflect-trading-partner-retaliation-and-alignment/). Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count. Agreements that include the United States and the listed country/entity as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for Israel means the market gives it about 100%.