Polymarket · OtherClosed
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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | >99% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
No trades of $1,000 or more lately.
This is a market on whether France, Spain, Italy or the United States of America will report a higher 7-day COVID-19 case average per capita on January 12 2022. This market will resolve on data aggregated by Our World in Data, specifically, the 7-day rolling average of COVID-19 cases for France, Spain, Italy and the USA, with Metric "Confirmed Cases", Interval "7-day rolling average", and the Relative to Population checkbox checked, which is available at https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer. This market will resolve to one of the aforementioned countries which, by the resolution source, has reported the highest 7-day case average per capita for January 12. The resolution source will be reviewed on January 14 2022 at 8 PM ET and - if the data for January 12 is not be available then - the most recent available data will be used. -------------------- OWiD dataset uses the most recent official numbers from governments and health ministries worldwide. Population estimates for per-capita metrics are based on the United Nations World Population Prospects. Here: https://github.com/owid/covid-19-data/tree/master/public/data one can find a detailed list of all our country-specific sources. Please note, if the highest averages per capita are the same for more than one country, the winning outcome shares will be valued adequately.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: >99¢ for Yes means the market gives it about >99%.