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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | <1% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
No trades of $1,000 or more lately.
This is a market on which party will control the senate following the results of the 2020 election as well as runoffs and special elections. The linked PredictIt question is the basis for the creation of this market and will be referenced as the leading resolution source, https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/4366. As stated at the link provided, “At 11:59:59 p.m. (ET) on January 31, 2021, the number of U.S. senators who were elected with a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with, or who have publicly stated an intention to caucus with the party identified in the question, shall, if the vice president has the same party affiliation, be equal to or greater than half the number of voting members of the U.S. Senate, and if the vice president has a different party affiliation, be greater than half the number of voting members of the U.S. Senate.”
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: <1¢ for Yes means the market gives it about <1%.