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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative Party | 100% | +1 pts | +47 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Liberal Party | 0% | −1 pts | −47 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| New Democratic Party | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Other | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 542d |  Flipadelphia2 fills | Conservative Party | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,887 | +$31 +1.1% | 10 |
| 543d | HotDogs | Conservative Party | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,461 | +$39 +2.7% | 10 |
| 543d | Anon681496849841 | Conservative Party | BuyYes89¢ → 100¢ | $1,102 | +$137 +12% | 10 |
| 543d | iriarte | Liberal Party | BuyNo75¢ → 100¢ | $1,080 | +$357 +33% | 10 |
| 550d | KarloDash | Other | SellNo>99¢ | $1,357 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 550d | bertram | Other | SellNo>99¢ | $1,986 | −$4 −0.2% | — |
| 551d | bertram | Other | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,986 | +$4 +0.2% | 10 |
| 551d | KarloDash | Other | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,357 | +$3 +0.2% | 10 |
| 552d | vanderlyle | New Democratic Party | SellNo>99¢ | $1,737 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 553d | vanderlyle | New Democratic Party | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,737 | +$3 +0.2% | 10 |
| 553d | perron | New Democratic Party | SellNo>99¢ | $1,226 | −$4 −0.3% | — |
| 554d | perron | New Democratic Party | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,228 | +$2 +0.2% | 10 |
| 555d | Arboristree | Conservative Party | BuyYes66¢ → 100¢ | $1,397 | +$719 +52% | 10 |
| 555d | booboo | Conservative Party | BuyYes66¢ → 100¢ | $2,853 | +$1,476 +52% | 10 |
| 559d | kaj43 | Liberal Party | BuyYes50¢ → 0¢ | $1,042 | −$1,042 −100% | 10 |
| 560d | Rylith | Liberal Party | SellYes47¢ → 0¢ | $20,209 | +$20,209 +100% | — |
| 560d | Raevian | Liberal Party | BuyNo53¢ → 100¢ | $22,847 | +$20,260 +89% | 10 |
| 561d |  dududududu | Conservative Party | SellYes67¢ → 100¢ | $1,119 | −$552 −49% | — |
xanxon69 shares
BabyYoda121,218 sharesThe 2025 Canadian federal election will be held on April 28 to elect members of the House of Commons to the 45th Canadian Parliament. This market will resolve according to the party that wins the most seats in the House of Commons in Manitoba as a result of the next Canadian general election. If voting in the next Canadian general election does not occur by December 31, 2025, this market will resolve to "No". In the case of a tie between this party and any other for the most seats won in Manitoba, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by this party, not any coalition of which it may be a part. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Canadian government, specifically Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/home.aspx).
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for Conservative Party means the market gives it about 100%.