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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Curtis | 100% | +2 pts | 0 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Mitch McConnell | 0% | −86 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Susan Collins | 0% | −1 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| John Fetterman | 0% | −7 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Lisa Murkowski | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 636d | Blind Chicken | Mitch McConnell | SellNo>99¢ | $1,058 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 637d |  Axios | Mitch McConnell | SellNo>99¢ | $3,852 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 637d | 0xba2c…bf17 | Mitch McConnell | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $4,709 | +$111 +2.4% | 10 |
| 637d | Axios | Mitch McConnell | BuyNo85¢ → 100¢ | $3,266 | +$589 +18% | 10 |
| 637d |  MotherTheresa | John Curtis | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,054 | +$2 +0.1% | 10 |
| 637d | 0xba2c…bf17 | John Curtis | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,810 | +$6 +0.2% | 10 |
| 637d |  aenews22 fills | Susan Collins | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,882 | +$6 +0.2% | 10 |
| 637d | aenews22 fills | Lisa Murkowski | BuyNo>99¢ | $11,582 | +$20 +0.2% | 10 |
| 637d | MotherTheresa | Susan Collins | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,788 | +$5 +0.3% | 10 |
| 637d |  ItsNotFine | Mitch McConnell | BuyYes66¢ → 0¢ | $1,320 | −$1,320 −100% | 10 |
| 637d |  itsfine | Mitch McConnell | BuyYes65¢ → 0¢ | $3,250 | −$3,250 −100% | 10 |
| 637d | JishWa2 fills | John Fetterman | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $5,058 | +$100 +2.0% | 10 |
| 637d |  truthteller4 fills | Mitch McConnell | BuyYes80¢ → 0¢ | $6,395 | −$6,395 −100% | 10 |
| 637d |  zalkida2 fills | John Fetterman | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $5,627 | +$106 +1.9% | 10 |
| 637d | pantomime | Lisa Murkowski | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,031 | +$9 +0.2% | 10 |
| 637d |  mr.ozi2 fills | Mitch McConnell | BuyYes82¢ → 0¢ | $4,110 | −$4,110 −100% | 10 |
| 637d | JishWa4 fills | Mitch McConnell | BuyYes88¢ → 0¢ | $8,041 | −$8,041 −100% | 10 |
| 637d | BreadGet | Mitch McConnell | BuyYes85¢ → 0¢ | $1,029 | −$1,029 −100% | 10 |
| 637d |  SPMontreal | Mitch McConnell | BuyYes88¢ → 0¢ | $1,118 | −$1,118 −100% | 10 |
| 638d | PrinceHal | John Fetterman | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $2,542 | +$191 +7.5% | 10 |
| 638d | SkillzThatKillz | Mitch McConnell | BuyYes84¢ → 0¢ | $1,680 | −$1,680 −100% | 10 |
| 638d | MotherTheresa | Lisa Murkowski | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,100 | +$11 +1.0% | 10 |
| 638d | Champ | John Fetterman | BuyYes50¢ → 0¢ | $5,500 | −$5,500 −100% | 10 |
| 639d | DavidCopperfield | John Fetterman | BuyNo50¢ → 100¢ | $3,468 | +$3,468 +100% | 10 |
| 639d |  syncope | John Fetterman | BuyNo64¢ → 100¢ | $3,509 | +$1,939 +55% | 10 |
| 642d |  ExhaustedBoyBilly | John Curtis | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,064 | −$8 −0.7% | — |
| 643d | syncope | John Curtis | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,875 | −$13 −0.7% | — |
| 646d | syncope | John Curtis | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,789 | +$51 +2.9% | 10 |
This is a market on which Senators will vote to confirm Pete Hegseth.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for John Curtis means the market gives it about 100%.