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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Waltz | 100% | +90 pts | +85 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Elon Musk | 0% | −31 pts | −37 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Howard Lutnick | 0% | −8 pts | −8 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Scott Bessent | 0% | −1 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Tulsi Gabbard | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Pete Hegseth | 0% | −23 pts | −22 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | 0% | −1 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Linda McMahon | 0% | −1 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Marco Rubio | 0% | −1 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Susie Wiles | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Pam Bondi | 0% | −1 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Karoline Leavitt | 0% | −1 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Peter Navarro | 0% | −13 pts | −8 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| None in 2025 | 0% | −5 pts | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 540d |  praesagus | Peter Navarro | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,356 | +$5 +0.1% | 4 |
| 540d | FoldingNuts272 | Elon Musk | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,430 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 540d |  Car | Peter Navarro | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,440 | +$4 +0.1% | 4 |
| 540d | FoldingNuts272 | Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | BuyNo>99¢ | $8,026 | +$8 +0.1% | 4 |
| 540d | Car | Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,549 | +$6 +0.1% | 4 |
| 540d | FoldingNuts272 | Pam Bondi | BuyNo>99¢ | $38,029 | +$44 +0.1% | 4 |
| 540d | oVyg7f | Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,199 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 540d | oVyg7f | Elon Musk | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,199 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 540d | FoldingNuts272 | Mike Waltz | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,464 | +$3 +0.1% | 4 |
| 540d | Car4 fills | Mike Waltz | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $8,370 | +$234 +2.8% | 4 |
| 540d | denizz | Mike Waltz | BuyYes91¢ → 100¢ | $1,074 | +$106 +9.9% | 4 |
| 540d | unwillingly-public | Mike Waltz | BuyYes89¢ → 100¢ | $5,885 | +$731 +12% | 4 |
| 540d |  JPow823747392 | Mike Waltz | BuyNo19¢ → 0¢ | $1,086 | −$1,086 −100% | 4 |
| 540d |  mr.ozi3 fills | Mike Waltz | BuyYes83¢ → 100¢ | $4,727 | +$973 +21% | 4 |
| 540d | P | Mike Waltz | BuyNo39¢ → 0¢ | $1,889 | −$1,889 −100% | 5 |
| 540d | pantomime | Mike Waltz | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,100 | +$11 +1.0% | 4 |
| 540d | fsx45 | Elon Musk | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $2,128 | +$91 +4.3% | 4 |
| 540d | Bink_7 | Elon Musk | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $9,600 | +$400 +4.2% | 4 |
| 540d | Bink_7 | None in 2025 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,239 | +$15 +1.2% | 4 |
zaddychill1,241 sharesThis market will resolve according to the first listed individual that it is announced will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration. If none of the listed individuals leave by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None in 2025”. An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for Mike Waltz means the market gives it about 100%.