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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leo XIV / Pope | 100% | +41 pts | +39 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Massie | 0% | −5 pts | −63 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Netanyahu | 100% | +8 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Hillary | 100% | +89 pts | +46 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Kamala | 100% | +13 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Talarico | 0% | −2 pts | −29 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Gianni / Infantino | 100% | +88 pts | +50 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Paxton | 0% | −5 pts | −51 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Keir / Starmer | 100% | +16 pts | +16 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Homan | 0% | −5 pts | −53 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Maduro | 100% | +54 pts | +35 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Kushner | 100% | +19 pts | +34 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Bolsonaro | 0% | 0 pts | −34 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Bernie | 0% | −1 pts | −24 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Caine | 100% | +29 pts | +32 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Friedrich / Merz | 0% | −6 pts | −43 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Leavitt | 0% | −9 pts | −54 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Zohran / Mamdani | 0% | −3 pts | −27 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Warsh | 100% | +27 pts | +29 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Nicki / Minaj | 0% | 0 pts | −30 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Rand Paul | 0% | −12 pts | −58 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Warren / Pocahontas | 100% | +32 pts | +52 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Bush | 100% | +48 pts | +52 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Newsom / Newscum | 100% | +24 pts | +19 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Castro | 100% | +43 pts | +42 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Elon / Musk | 0% | −48 pts | −30 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Ilhan / Omar | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Delcy | 0% | −7 pts | −20 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Oz | 100% | +59 pts | +44 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Machado | 0% | −6 pts | −33 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Khamenei / Khomeini | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Schumer | 100% | +49 pts | +50 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Viktor / Orbán | 100% | +17 pts | +45 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Kavanaugh | 0% | 0 pts | −40 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Emmanuel / Macron | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Zuckerberg | 100% | +73 pts | +61 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Jensen / Huang | 100% | +60 pts | +53 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 175d | d-flow | Massie | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,873 | +$7 +0.4% | 20 |
| 176d |  KingZeManel | Leavitt | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,113 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 194d | grgrrrgrgrgrr | Leo XIV / Pope | BuyYes>99¢ | $7,809 | +$8 +0.1% | 20 |
| 194d |  pemul1s2 fills | Leo XIV / Pope | BuyYes>99¢ | $23,904 | +$67 +0.3% | 20 |
| 194d |  yen4u | Leo XIV / Pope | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,627 | +$15 +0.6% | 20 |
| 194d | Trustinghorse | Leo XIV / Pope | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $9,795 | +$99 +1.0% | 20 |
| 194d |  OraculumNobius | Keir / Starmer | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,005 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed name between April 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count. If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once). A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible. Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution. AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution. Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for Leo XIV / Pope means the market gives it about 100%.