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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | −43 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
This market will resolve to the name of the leader who leaves/is removed from power first. This market will resolve to "Netanyahu" if Benjamin Netanyahu is out as the Prime Minister of Israel before Yahya Sinwar is out as leader of Hamas. This market will resolve to "Sinwar" if Yahya Sinwar is out as the leader of Hamas before Benjamin Netanyahu is out as the Prime Minister of Israel. If both leaders remain in power uninterruptedly from December 26, 2023, through October 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 0%.
