Loading your workspacePreparing the page and its market data.
Loading the chart…
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2026 | 28% | +2 pts | −2 pts | 15¢ · 40¢ (25¢) | — | in 69d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 295d | yougotme | Will a new country buy Bitcoin by December 31, 2025? | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,170 | +$1 +0.1% | 2 |
tooBIGtoRIG14 shares
sindoo11 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the government of any sovereign UN member state announces between November 13, 3:00 PM ET and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET that they bought Bitcoin for the first time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This announcement can pertain to a first purchase of Bitcoin outside of the timeframe of this market (e.g. if a country announces it made its first purchase of Bitcoin prior to this market's timeframe, but the announcement is made within the timeframe, this market will resolve to "Yes"). A qualifying purchase requires a relevant country take direct custody over the Bitcoin they purchase. Buying into investment vehicles, ETFs, etc., which do not constitute a direct purchase of Bitcoin, will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be official announcements from the governments of any purchasing UN member state, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 28¢ for December 31, 2026 means the market gives it about 28%.