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Polymarket · OtherClosed
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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | <1% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
No trades of $1,000 or more lately.
Recently, Mango Markets was subjected to a "highly profitable trading strategy" by Avraham Eisenberg, which resulted in ~$100m worth of crypto being drained from the platform (about half was returned subsequently). There has now been talk that a similar highly profitable trading strategy could occur on Aave, one of the most trusted, well-known lending Dapps. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Aave has $100m or more of bad debt by November 30, 2022, 11:59:59 PM ET and "No" otherwise. Any bad debt introduced before October 21 (e.g. Harmony) will have no bearing on this market - this market concerns new bad debt between October 21, 2022 and November 30 (inclusive). The resolution source will be on-chain activity as well as a consensus of credible reporting and/or official communication from Aave. If USD stablecoins are part of the bad debt, the value will be calculated as the number of tokens. If other cryptocurrencies are part of the bad debt, the value will be determined by using the price of them at the time of the draining from AAVE, as verified on-chain.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: <1¢ for Yes means the market gives it about <1%.