Loading your workspacePreparing the page and its market data.
Loading the chart…
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grand Prize Winner (CPT<$100) | 0% | 0 pts | −13 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Grand Prize Winner (CPT<$10) | 0% | — | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Grand Prize Winner (Any CPT) | 0% | +8 pts | −2 pts | <1¢ · 16¢ (16¢) | — | ended |
| Grand Prize Winner (CPT<$1,000) | 0% | 0 pts | −10 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
The winners of the ARC Prize 2025 are scheduled to be publicly announced on December 5, 2025. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any team achieves a score of 85% or higher on the private evaluation set of ARC-AGI-2 with the specified cost per task (CPT) by December 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only scores publicly confirmed by the ARC Prize will qualify. If ARC Prize does not publicly the relevant data by December 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source will be official information from ARC Prize (https://arcprize.org).
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for Grand Prize Winner (CPT<$100) means the market gives it about 0%.
