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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 826d | professorx | Will Biden drop out before Trump's RNC speech? | BuyNo>99¢ | $15,154 | +$15 +0.1% | 4 |
| 826d | okcoolstorybro | Will Biden drop out before Trump's RNC speech? | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,200 | +$7 +0.1% | 4 |
| 827d | KamalaPrezHolder | Will Biden drop out before Trump's RNC speech? | BuyNo100¢ | $1,062 | +$5 +0.5% | 4 |
| 827d |  truthteller | Will Biden drop out before Trump's RNC speech? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $8,096 | +$165 +2.0% | 4 |
| 827d |  funnyday3 fills | Will Biden drop out before Trump's RNC speech? | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $7,152 | +$184 +2.6% | 5 |
| 827d | polyproguy | Will Biden drop out before Trump's RNC speech? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $7,840 | +$160 +2.0% | 5 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Joe Biden officially announces his withdrawal or is confirmed to have withdrawn from the 2024 US presidential race before Trump begins his main RNC acceptance speech, scheduled to occur on Thursday, July 18. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No." If Trump doesn't speak at all on July 18, this market will also resolve to "No." In the event of any extenuating circumstances that prevent Joe Biden from continuing the race, this market will also resolve to "Yes". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Joe Biden or his official/legal representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 0%.