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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 50% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1008d |  funnyday | Will GPT-4 have 500b+ parameters? | SellNo50¢ | $3,376 | $0 0.0% | — |
| 1008d | funnyday | Will GPT-4 have 500b+ parameters? | BuyNo49¢ → 50¢ | $3,046 | +$62 +2.0% | 4 |
| 1008d | funnyday | Will GPT-4 have 500b+ parameters? | SellYes55¢ → 50¢ | $2,741 | +$249 +9.1% | — |
| 1008d | funnyday2 fills | Will GPT-4 have 500b+ parameters? | BuyYes86¢ → 50¢ | $5,775 | −$2,400 −42% | 4 |
| 1039d |  50Whence | Will GPT-4 have 500b+ parameters? | BuyYes59¢ → 50¢ | $1,484 | −$226 −15% | 4 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-4 has 500 billion or more parameters when released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market covers how many parameters GPT-4 has at the time of its initial release, and will resolve based on that number regardless of whether that figure is later increased or decreased. If GPT-4 is not released by December 31, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. GPT-4 refers to a product that is explicitly named GPT-4, or is a successor to GPT-3 in the way that GPT-3 was a successor to GPT-2; it cannot be branded as GPT3.5 or a version of GPT-3. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, however a consensus of credible reporting (including corroborating statements from employees of OpenAI where available) may also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 50¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 50%.