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Polymarket · Tech & ScienceClosed
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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | −57 pts | 0 pts | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 598d | alex5622 fills | Will Grok remain the #1 model through March 31? | BuyNo>99¢ | $8,260 | +$12 +0.1% | 4 |
| 598d | Ordon | Will Grok remain the #1 model through March 31? | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,995 | +$5 +0.1% | 4 |
| 599d | predictordeniz | Will Grok remain the #1 model through March 31? | SellNo>99¢ | $1,196 | −$4 −0.3% | — |
| 599d | SweetChariot | Will Grok remain the #1 model through March 31? | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,077 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model owned by xAI has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) continuously from February 18, to March 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market. If a listed modeI ties xAI for the #1 Arena score, it will not qualify to resolve this market to "No." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 0%.