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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 21% | +11 pts | +9 pts | 15¢ · 27¢ (12¢) | $97.6 | in 70d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 184d | Orange-Measure2 fills | Will Half-Life 3 be announced before 2027? | BuyYes57¢ → 21¢ | $3,402 | −$2,146 −63% | 24 |
jeffreyepsteinHALFLIFE3ISCOMING4,802 shares
bbburner379 shares
mceee862 shares
Snow-White634 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Valve publicly and explicitly announces that Half-Life 3 is in production by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The announcement of the creation of any expansion or sequel not explicitly named "Half-Life 3" (e.g., Half-Life: Alyx, Half-Life 2: Episode One) will not be sufficient to qualify this market toward a "Yes" resolution. The game must have the words "Half-Life 3" in the title to qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Valve or a consensus of credible sources.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 21¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 21%.