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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 480d |  noreasapa | Will Israel declare war on Iran before July? | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,938 | +$3 +0.1% | 4 |
| 481d | Quadratus | Will Israel declare war on Iran before July? | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,291 | +$13 +0.2% | 4 |
| 487d | HanSolo24 | Will Israel declare war on Iran before July? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,347 | −$13 −1.0% | — |
| 490d | nedsta2 fills | Will Israel declare war on Iran before July? | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $4,605 | +$143 +3.1% | 4 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the government of Israel officially declares war on Iran by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A qualifying declaration must be explicit and formal, issued through official Israeli government channels, and must clearly state that Israel is at war with Iran. General statements about conflict, military operations, or threats do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war. Only statements made by the Israeli government qualify. The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 0%.