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Polymarket · WorldClosed
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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Israel raid another ship of the Gaza flotilla by October 15? | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| October 10 | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 381d |  Allinnothing | Will Israel raid another ship of the Gaza flotilla by October 15? | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,082 | +$3 +0.1% | 4 |
| 381d | esac | Will Israel raid another ship of the Gaza flotilla by October 15? | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,664 | +$3 +0.2% | 4 |
| 381d |  TylerTurden | Will Israel raid another ship of the Gaza flotilla by October 15? | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,035 | +$37 +3.6% | 4 |
MiHua40 sharesThe Freedom Flotilla Coalition, which organized the first Global Sumud Flotilla intercepted by Israel, has now launched a second wave of ships under the Conscience / Thousand Madleens initiative with the same goal of breaking the Gaza blockade. Vessel movements can be tracked here: https://freedomflotilla.org/ffc-tmtg-conscience-tracker/. This market will resolve "Yes" if Israeli military or law enforcement personnel physically board another vessel participating in the initiative, without authorization or consent from the crew or organizers, by October 15, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Escorting, shadowing, or issuing warnings without boarding does not count. Boarding with the crew’s consent also will not count. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for Will Israel raid another ship of the Gaza flotilla by October 15? means the market gives it about 100%.