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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 100% | +59 pts | +81 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 498d | NotABotProbably | Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility before July? | SellYes>99¢ | $1,026 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 498d | whatisthisclownmarket | Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility before July? | SellYes>99¢ | $20,533 | −$41 −0.2% | — |
| 498d | Muted-Stew | Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility before July? | SellYes>99¢ | $1,495 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 498d | 0x7131cB618fb195C70E8e629C45199096833C292 fills | Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility before July? | SellYes>99¢ | $46,201 | −$221 −0.5% | — |
| 498d | Gd80 | Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility before July? | SellYes>99¢ | $1,079 | −$4 −0.4% | — |
| 498d | umniybet12 fills | Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility before July? | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,265 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 498d |  Euan | Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility before July? | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,155 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 498d |  TheWolfOfPoly | Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility before July? | SellYes>99¢ | $2,952 | −$6 −0.2% | — |
| 498d | Alabjack231 | Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility before July? | SellYes>99¢ | $4,719 | −$9 −0.2% | — |
| 498d |  tourists6 fills | Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility before July? | BuyYes90¢ → 100¢ | $29,302 | +$3,379 +12% | 20 |
| 498d |  aenews24 fills | Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility before July? | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $37,580 | +$424 +1.1% | 20 |
| 498d | bbv | Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility before July? | SellYes100¢ | $1,085 | −$5 −0.5% | — |
| 498d |  doyoufeelit | Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility before July? | SellYes>99¢ | $2,521 | −$8 −0.3% | — |
| 498d | spark12 fills | Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility before July? | BuyYes>99¢ | $11,034 | +$55 +0.5% | 20 |
| 498d | doyoufeelit | Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility before July? | BuyYes100¢ | $10,063 | +$51 +0.5% | 20 |
| 498d | racotaco | Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility before July? | BuyYes100¢ | $1,592 | +$8 +0.5% | 20 |
| 498d | 6482f | Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility before July? | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,930 | −$21 −0.7% | — |
| 498d |  Car4 fills | Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility before July? | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $20,328 | +$324 +1.6% | 20 |
| 498d | whatisthisclownmarket3 fills | Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility before July? | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $14,399 | +$145 +1.0% | 20 |
| 498d | applesandbananas | Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility before July? | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,778 | +$13 +0.7% | 20 |
| 498d |  sigh | Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility before July? | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $21,980 | +$244 +1.1% | 20 |
| 498d |  Dropper2 fills | Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility before July? | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $29,519 | +$481 +1.6% | 20 |
| 498d | TheWolfOfPoly2 fills | Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility before July? | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $7,536 | +$80 +1.1% | 20 |
| 498d |  tunatyler2 fills | Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility before July? | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $4,683 | +$57 +1.2% | 20 |
| 498d |  vxvx | Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility before July? | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,558 | −$32 −2.0% | — |
| 498d |  Funfzig6 fills | Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility before July? | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $22,424 | +$468 +2.1% | 20 |
| 498d | Car2 fills | Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility before July? | SellYes97¢ → 100¢ | $21,099 | −$549 −2.6% | — |
| 498d |  Minecraft | Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility before July? | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $2,379 | +$41 +1.7% | 20 |
| 498d | borntoolate.eth | Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility before July? | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $6,142 | +$100 +1.6% | 20 |
| 498d | vxvx | Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility before July? | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,573 | +$17 +1.1% | 20 |
| 498d | 0x7131cB618fb195C70E8e629C45199096833C292 fills | Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility before July? | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $6,252 | +$72 +1.2% | 20 |
| 498d |  🎨🎨🎨2 fills | Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility before July? | BuyYes89¢ → 100¢ | $3,417 | +$414 +12% | 20 |
| 498d |  Axios2 fills | Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility before July? | BuyYes52¢ → 100¢ | $12,497 | +$11,652 +93% | 20 |
| 498d | cashy | Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility before July? | BuyYes85¢ → 100¢ | $5,523 | +$975 +18% | 20 |
| 498d |  WashTrade3 fills | Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility before July? | BuyYes42¢ → 100¢ | $5,807 | +$7,907 +136% | 23 |
| 498d | sigh5 fills | Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility before July? | SellNo52¢ → 0¢ | $10,764 | +$10,764 +100% | — |
| 498d | WillnotHappen | Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility before July? | BuyYes54¢ → 100¢ | $2,998 | +$2,561 +85% | 20 |
| 498d | StillLife7 fills | Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility before July? | SellYes40¢ → 100¢ | $15,428 | −$23,434 −152% | — |
| 498d |  debased | Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility before July? | BuyNo59¢ → 0¢ | $1,115 | −$1,115 −100% | 20 |
| 499d |  Naichli | Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility before July? | SellNo55¢ → 0¢ | $1,364 | +$1,364 +100% | — |
| 499d | Pqlekdnndnbd | Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility before July? | BuyNo59¢ → 0¢ | $1,492 | −$1,492 −100% | 20 |
| 499d | lijialijia20205 fills | Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility before July? | BuyNo65¢ → 0¢ | $16,533 | −$16,533 −100% | 20 |
| 499d |  Parliament2 fills | Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility before July? | BuyNo74¢ → 0¢ | $6,500 | −$6,500 −100% | 20 |
| 499d |  Donkov3 fills | Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility before July? | SellYes41¢ → 100¢ | $4,332 | −$6,116 −141% | — |
| 499d | WhYSOSeRiOuSsS | Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility before July? | BuyNo59¢ → 0¢ | $1,470 | −$1,470 −100% | 20 |
| 499d | StillLife6 fills | Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility before July? | BuyYes29¢ → 100¢ | $8,500 | +$20,400 +240% | 28 |
| 499d | Probabilityhunt | Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility before July? | SellNo50¢ → 0¢ | $1,043 | +$1,043 +100% | — |
| 499d | Doggieson3 fills | Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility before July? | SellNo54¢ → 0¢ | $3,562 | +$3,562 +100% | — |
| 499d | sigh3 fills | Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility before July? | BuyNo76¢ → 0¢ | $9,372 | −$9,372 −100% | 20 |
| 499d | BowlOfPunch | Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility before July? | BuyNo63¢ → 0¢ | $15,145 | −$15,145 −100% | 20 |
| 499d | Bobo6667 | Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility before July? | BuyYes38¢ → 100¢ | $1,001 | +$1,633 +163% | 20 |
| 500d | Car | Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility before July? | SellNo62¢ → 0¢ | $1,081 | +$1,081 +100% | — |
| 500d | m500x882.in74m2.x.an | Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility before July? | BuyYes28¢ → 100¢ | $1,496 | +$3,836 +256% | 22 |
| 500d | FlaSh2 fills | Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility before July? | SellYes24¢ → 100¢ | $3,132 | −$9,915 −317% | — |
| 500d | WildRumpus | Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility before July? | BuyNo76¢ → 0¢ | $10,000 | −$10,000 −100% | 20 |
| 500d |  Blamer208 | Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility before July? | SellYes25¢ → 100¢ | $1,089 | −$3,299 −303% | — |
| 500d | Probabilityhunt | Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility before July? | BuyNo79¢ → 0¢ | $5,000 | −$5,000 −100% | 20 |
| 500d | Doggieson3 fills | Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility before July? | BuyNo81¢ → 0¢ | $12,000 | −$12,000 −100% | 20 |
| 501d |  ondra1233 fills | Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility before July? | SellNo82¢ → 0¢ | $4,821 | +$4,821 +100% | — |
| 502d | Shikamaru.DM | Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility before July? | BuyNo75¢ → 0¢ | $3,169 | −$3,169 −100% | 20 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel carries out a kinetic military action against any Iranian facility used for the development, enrichment, storage, or processing of nuclear material or technology, including reactors, enrichment facilities, uranium mines, and research centers located on Iranian soil, between May 20, 10:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Israeli operatives on the ground. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. Israeli missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets will not be considered for this market. The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting. Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 100%.