Polymarket · OtherClosed
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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | <1% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
No trades of $1,000 or more lately.
This is a market on whether NASA will conduct a sustained flight of the Ingenuity Helicopter on Mars by April 12, 2021, 11:59 PM ET. A sustained flight will mean that the Ingenuity Helicopter successfully takes off, sustains flight for longer than 10 seconds and then lands upright. A successful launch and sustained flight will be confirmed by examining information presented during NASA’s official video feed of the launch (https://mars.nasa.gov/technology/helicopter/#Watch-Online) as well as information presented at the post-flight news briefing (https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCryGec9PdUCLjpJW2mgCuLw) and data corroborated by NASA which reflects the status and timing of the flight. If NASA successfully conducts a sustained flight of the Ingenuity Helicopter by April 12, 2021 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. This market will resolve to “No” if NASA does not successfully conduct a sustained flight of the Ingenuity Helicopter by April 12, 2021 11:59 PM ET or if there is not enough information within one week (by April 19, 11:59 PM ET) to confirm sustained flight. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, this market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: <1¢ for Yes means the market gives it about <1%.