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Polymarket · PoliticsClosed
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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | −23 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 716d |  Rasalgethi | Will Nate Silver correctly call the Presidential Election? | SellNo>99¢ | $1,159 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 718d |  50Whence2 fills | Will Nate Silver correctly call the Presidential Election? | SellNo44¢ → 100¢ | $2,167 | −$2,739 −126% | — |
| 719d |  itsgg | Will Nate Silver correctly call the Presidential Election? | SellYes54¢ → 0¢ | $1,326 | +$1,326 +100% | — |
| 721d |  beigesun2 fills | Will Nate Silver correctly call the Presidential Election? | BuyNo44¢ → 100¢ | $12,094 | +$15,617 +129% | 13 |
| 721d | User534435453 | Will Nate Silver correctly call the Presidential Election? | SellYes58¢ → 0¢ | $2,308 | +$2,308 +100% | — |
| 722d |  PropheticFire | Will Nate Silver correctly call the Presidential Election? | SellYes58¢ → 0¢ | $3,884 | +$3,884 +100% | — |
| 723d | beigesun | Will Nate Silver correctly call the Presidential Election? | SellNo37¢ → 100¢ | $1,745 | −$2,971 −170% | — |
| 723d | DumbMoney2.0 | Will Nate Silver correctly call the Presidential Election? | SellYes63¢ → 0¢ | $1,605 | +$1,605 +100% | — |
| 725d | User5344354532 fills | Will Nate Silver correctly call the Presidential Election? | BuyYes64¢ → 0¢ | $2,378 | −$2,378 −100% | 10 |
| 730d | KevinFinnerty | Will Nate Silver correctly call the Presidential Election? | BuyNo40¢ → 100¢ | $2,923 | +$4,384 +150% | 12 |
| 731d |  Apsalar | Will Nate Silver correctly call the Presidential Election? | SellYes61¢ → 0¢ | $1,687 | +$1,687 +100% | — |
| 735d | The Spirit of Ukraine>UMA2 fills | Will Nate Silver correctly call the Presidential Election? | BuyYes58¢ → 0¢ | $2,927 | −$2,927 −100% | 10 |
| 735d | The Spirit of Ukraine>UMA | Will Nate Silver correctly call the Presidential Election? | SellNo43¢ → 100¢ | $1,128 | −$1,496 −133% | — |
| 736d | PropheticFire | Will Nate Silver correctly call the Presidential Election? | BuyYes55¢ → 0¢ | $1,923 | −$1,923 −100% | 10 |
| 737d |  Voltaire-674 | Will Nate Silver correctly call the Presidential Election? | SellYes53¢ → 0¢ | $1,212 | +$1,212 +100% | — |
| 738d | Voltaire-674 | Will Nate Silver correctly call the Presidential Election? | BuyYes55¢ → 0¢ | $1,267 | −$1,267 −100% | 10 |
| 740d |  Wloczega2 fills | Will Nate Silver correctly call the Presidential Election? | SellYes49¢ → 0¢ | $4,412 | +$4,412 +100% | — |
| 741d | Wloczega | Will Nate Silver correctly call the Presidential Election? | BuyYes55¢ → 0¢ | $5,465 | −$5,465 −100% | 10 |
| 754d |  ExhaustedBoyBilly | Will Nate Silver correctly call the Presidential Election? | SellYes54¢ → 0¢ | $1,340 | +$1,340 +100% | — |
| 755d | Slow-Trinket | Will Nate Silver correctly call the Presidential Election? | SellYes55¢ → 0¢ | $1,439 | +$1,439 +100% | — |
| 756d | 252 | Will Nate Silver correctly call the Presidential Election? | SellYes56¢ → 0¢ | $6,066 | +$6,066 +100% | — |
| 759d | beigesun2 fills | Will Nate Silver correctly call the Presidential Election? | SellYes58¢ → 0¢ | $3,116 | +$3,116 +100% | — |
| 766d | kingfisher | Will Nate Silver correctly call the Presidential Election? | BuyNo42¢ → 100¢ | $1,680 | +$2,320 +138% | 11 |
| 769d | 50Whence | Will Nate Silver correctly call the Presidential Election? | BuyNo41¢ → 100¢ | $5,110 | +$7,354 +144% | 13 |
| 774d | beigesun | Will Nate Silver correctly call the Presidential Election? | BuyYes60¢ → 0¢ | $3,287 | −$3,287 −100% | 10 |
| 778d | kingfisher2 fills | Will Nate Silver correctly call the Presidential Election? | SellYes60¢ → 0¢ | $5,236 | +$5,236 +100% | — |
| 778d | sdiff123 | Will Nate Silver correctly call the Presidential Election? | SellYes61¢ → 0¢ | $3,050 | +$3,050 +100% | — |
| 785d |  JeremyRWhittaker | Will Nate Silver correctly call the Presidential Election? | BuyNo39¢ → 100¢ | $4,621 | +$7,306 +158% | 13 |
politibet37 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the candidate that the Silver Bulletin's final election forecast projects as most likely to win the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election wins the election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the Silver Bulletin's final election forecast is tied (there is no favorite), this market will resolve to 50-50. This market may only resolve once Polymarket's main U.S. Presidential market (https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024) has been resolved. The resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's 2024 presidential election forecast, https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model, specifically the probability of winning the Electoral College.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 0%.