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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 100% | +93 pts | +96 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 543d | CaligulasDog | Will Pierre Poilievre lose his seat? | SellYes>99¢ | $4,279 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 543d | Moetoo | Will Pierre Poilievre lose his seat? | SellYes>99¢ | $1,019 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 543d |  RyomenSukuna | Will Pierre Poilievre lose his seat? | SellYes>99¢ | $1,937 | −$4 −0.2% | — |
| 543d | TractorFund | Will Pierre Poilievre lose his seat? | SellYes>99¢ | $1,263 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 543d | elPolloLoco2 fills | Will Pierre Poilievre lose his seat? | SellYes>99¢ | $7,154 | −$7 −0.1% | — |
| 543d | upp13 fills | Will Pierre Poilievre lose his seat? | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $135,818 | +$1,166 +0.9% | 4 |
| 543d | jkwon126 | Will Pierre Poilievre lose his seat? | SellYes>99¢ | $1,562 | −$5 −0.3% | — |
| 543d | YuHongKong | Will Pierre Poilievre lose his seat? | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,059 | −$6 −0.6% | — |
| 543d | acceptabledinosaur | Will Pierre Poilievre lose his seat? | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $10,977 | −$154 −1.4% | — |
| 543d | mirand | Will Pierre Poilievre lose his seat? | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,963 | −$37 −1.9% | — |
| 543d | Atem777 | Will Pierre Poilievre lose his seat? | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,006 | −$22 −2.2% | — |
| 543d | zer0dB | Will Pierre Poilievre lose his seat? | SellYes90¢ → 100¢ | $2,352 | −$251 −11% | — |
| 543d | 0x65c65De373A10e5f319f727 fills | Will Pierre Poilievre lose his seat? | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $8,925 | +$594 +6.7% | 4 |
| 543d | buoys | Will Pierre Poilievre lose his seat? | SellYes76¢ → 100¢ | $1,240 | −$383 −31% | — |
| 543d | CaligulasDog | Will Pierre Poilievre lose his seat? | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $4,021 | +$262 +6.5% | 4 |
| 543d | sigmaballz | Will Pierre Poilievre lose his seat? | SellYes93¢ → 100¢ | $1,209 | −$91 −7.5% | — |
| 543d | rollothomasi2 fills | Will Pierre Poilievre lose his seat? | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $11,331 | +$718 +6.3% | 4 |
| 543d |  ChocolateSTAR | Will Pierre Poilievre lose his seat? | SellYes94¢ → 100¢ | $1,790 | −$111 −6.2% | — |
| 543d | Kinui | Will Pierre Poilievre lose his seat? | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $1,605 | +$95 +5.9% | 4 |
| 543d | elPolloLoco2 fills | Will Pierre Poilievre lose his seat? | BuyYes90¢ → 100¢ | $6,439 | +$708 +11% | 4 |
| 543d | acceptabledinosaur | Will Pierre Poilievre lose his seat? | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $10,511 | +$620 +5.9% | 4 |
| 543d | buoys | Will Pierre Poilievre lose his seat? | BuyYes84¢ → 100¢ | $1,082 | +$207 +19% | 4 |
| 543d | Localkor | Will Pierre Poilievre lose his seat? | BuyYes88¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$262 +13% | 4 |
| 543d | dizel-041 | Will Pierre Poilievre lose his seat? | SellYes81¢ → 100¢ | $1,544 | −$351 −23% | — |
| 543d | Po45 | Will Pierre Poilievre lose his seat? | BuyYes81¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$455 +23% | 4 |
| 543d | simpleman | Will Pierre Poilievre lose his seat? | SellYes81¢ → 100¢ | $2,225 | −$507 −23% | — |
| 543d | jkwon126 | Will Pierre Poilievre lose his seat? | BuyYes85¢ → 100¢ | $1,332 | +$235 +18% | 4 |
| 543d | Heatleyin07 | Will Pierre Poilievre lose his seat? | BuyYes86¢ → 100¢ | $2,997 | +$485 +16% | 4 |
| 543d | TractorFund | Will Pierre Poilievre lose his seat? | BuyYes85¢ → 100¢ | $1,072 | +$193 +18% | 4 |
| 543d | GeniusBets | Will Pierre Poilievre lose his seat? | BuyYes75¢ → 100¢ | $1,897 | +$642 +34% | 4 |
| 543d | operationcastle | Will Pierre Poilievre lose his seat? | SellYes72¢ → 100¢ | $1,663 | −$641 −39% | — |
| 543d | Docnews8 | Will Pierre Poilievre lose his seat? | BuyYes87¢ → 100¢ | $4,986 | +$720 +14% | 4 |
| 543d | Gennedy2 fills | Will Pierre Poilievre lose his seat? | BuyYes38¢ → 100¢ | $11,468 | +$19,111 +167% | 10 |
| 543d |  DancingonMarshmellos | Will Pierre Poilievre lose his seat? | BuyYes55¢ → 100¢ | $1,107 | +$914 +82% | 4 |
| 543d | JesseDallas | Will Pierre Poilievre lose his seat? | BuyNo57¢ → 0¢ | $1,236 | −$1,236 −100% | 4 |
| 543d | JesseDallas | Will Pierre Poilievre lose his seat? | SellYes41¢ → 100¢ | $1,236 | −$1,753 −142% | — |
| 543d | JesseDallas | Will Pierre Poilievre lose his seat? | BuyYes53¢ → 100¢ | $1,584 | +$1,405 +89% | 4 |
| 543d | asfasfasf | Will Pierre Poilievre lose his seat? | BuyYes69¢ → 100¢ | $1,025 | +$461 +45% | 4 |
| 543d | Joejie | Will Pierre Poilievre lose his seat? | BuyYes55¢ → 100¢ | $5,000 | +$4,141 +83% | 4 |
| 543d | 019ec6e2 | Will Pierre Poilievre lose his seat? | BuyYes27¢ → 100¢ | $1,000 | +$2,709 +271% | 4 |
| 543d |  YoungGriff | Will Pierre Poilievre lose his seat? | BuyYes25¢ → 100¢ | $1,018 | +$3,055 +300% | 4 |
| 543d | operationcastle | Will Pierre Poilievre lose his seat? | BuyYes9¢ → 100¢ | $1,526 | +$15,084 +989% | 7 |
| 544d | 019ec6e2 | Will Pierre Poilievre lose his seat? | BuyNo95¢ → 0¢ | $2,984 | −$2,984 −100% | 4 |
| 544d | ballboy95 | Will Pierre Poilievre lose his seat? | BuyNo92¢ → 0¢ | $1,160 | −$1,160 −100% | 6 |
| 545d | SaylorMoon | Will Pierre Poilievre lose his seat? | BuyNo93¢ → 0¢ | $4,361 | −$4,361 −100% | 6 |
| 545d | TTdes2 fills | Will Pierre Poilievre lose his seat? | BuyNo92¢ → 0¢ | $2,351 | −$2,351 −100% | 5 |
| 546d |  SirHarryOakes | Will Pierre Poilievre lose his seat? | SellNo87¢ → 0¢ | $1,148 | +$1,148 +100% | — |
| 548d |  just.some.guy | Will Pierre Poilievre lose his seat? | BuyNo89¢ → 0¢ | $1,477 | −$1,477 −100% | 5 |
| 563d | thiswithcigarettes | Will Pierre Poilievre lose his seat? | BuyYes11¢ → 100¢ | $1,500 | +$11,659 +777% | 7 |
| 564d | Ineedhole | Will Pierre Poilievre lose his seat? | BuyNo89¢ → 0¢ | $7,606 | −$7,606 −100% | 4 |
The next Canadian general election will take place on April 28, 2025, to elect members of the House of Commons to the 45th Canadian Parliament. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pierre Poilievre loses his seat in parliament as a result of the next Canadian general election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the results of this election aren't known by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Canadian government.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 100%.