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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 661d |  vocifer | Will Russia use a nuclear weapon in 2024? | BuyNo>99¢ | $8,671 | +$9 +0.1% | 4 |
| 661d |  cdpor2 | Will Russia use a nuclear weapon in 2024? | SellNo>99¢ | $2,252 | −$5 −0.2% | — |
| 668d | 0x4e25…d7a7 | Will Russia use a nuclear weapon in 2024? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $6,157 | −$43 −0.7% | — |
| 668d |  SkyeSrivatsa | Will Russia use a nuclear weapon in 2024? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,098 | +$13 +0.6% | 4 |
| 669d | cdpor2 | Will Russia use a nuclear weapon in 2024? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,236 | +$20 +0.9% | 4 |
| 670d |  scottilicious | Will Russia use a nuclear weapon in 2024? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $12,161 | −$177 −1.5% | — |
| 670d | Nowhere-Man6 fills | Will Russia use a nuclear weapon in 2024? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $19,936 | −$244 −1.2% | — |
| 671d | plus1procentdep | Will Russia use a nuclear weapon in 2024? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,983 | +$17 +0.8% | 4 |
| 671d | suwd | Will Russia use a nuclear weapon in 2024? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,042 | +$51 +1.0% | 4 |
| 671d | 42uen | Will Russia use a nuclear weapon in 2024? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,049 | +$51 +1.0% | 4 |
| 671d | stanjeanne | Will Russia use a nuclear weapon in 2024? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,047 | +$51 +1.0% | 4 |
| 671d | francescasharon | Will Russia use a nuclear weapon in 2024? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,061 | +$51 +1.0% | 4 |
| 671d | dzorg | Will Russia use a nuclear weapon in 2024? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,074 | +$51 +1.0% | 4 |
| 671d | gayzt | Will Russia use a nuclear weapon in 2024? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,049 | +$51 +1.0% | 4 |
| 671d | Angelicr | Will Russia use a nuclear weapon in 2024? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,039 | +$51 +1.0% | 4 |
| 671d | EddieLinda | Will Russia use a nuclear weapon in 2024? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,038 | +$51 +1.0% | 4 |
| 671d | jnaet | Will Russia use a nuclear weapon in 2024? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,043 | +$51 +1.0% | 4 |
| 671d | k2wdw | Will Russia use a nuclear weapon in 2024? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,049 | +$51 +1.0% | 4 |
| 671d | 7lxs5 | Will Russia use a nuclear weapon in 2024? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,041 | +$51 +1.0% | 4 |
| 671d | MeadowBlind | Will Russia use a nuclear weapon in 2024? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,049 | +$51 +1.0% | 4 |
| 671d | Evay | Will Russia use a nuclear weapon in 2024? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,029 | +$51 +1.0% | 4 |
| 671d | 82787 | Will Russia use a nuclear weapon in 2024? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,049 | +$51 +1.0% | 4 |
| 671d | gfgdh | Will Russia use a nuclear weapon in 2024? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,019 | +$51 +1.0% | 4 |
| 671d | rpjdb2 fills | Will Russia use a nuclear weapon in 2024? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $10,037 | +$101 +1.0% | 4 |
| 671d | JosephineFaye | Will Russia use a nuclear weapon in 2024? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,009 | +$51 +1.0% | 4 |
| 671d | Winifreder2 fills | Will Russia use a nuclear weapon in 2024? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $10,042 | +$101 +1.0% | 4 |
| 671d | dxnhs | Will Russia use a nuclear weapon in 2024? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,029 | +$51 +1.0% | 4 |
| 671d | Jocelyn333 | Will Russia use a nuclear weapon in 2024? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,032 | +$51 +1.0% | 4 |
| 671d | Sethrde | Will Russia use a nuclear weapon in 2024? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,039 | +$51 +1.0% | 4 |
| 671d | dzf | Will Russia use a nuclear weapon in 2024? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,044 | +$51 +1.0% | 4 |
| 671d | wvsrt | Will Russia use a nuclear weapon in 2024? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,049 | +$51 +1.0% | 4 |
| 671d | Miriamr | Will Russia use a nuclear weapon in 2024? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,069 | +$51 +1.0% | 4 |
| 671d | ugms | Will Russia use a nuclear weapon in 2024? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,049 | +$51 +1.0% | 4 |
| 671d | lhii | Will Russia use a nuclear weapon in 2024? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,054 | +$51 +1.0% | 4 |
| 671d | gvfrrere | Will Russia use a nuclear weapon in 2024? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,059 | +$51 +1.0% | 4 |
| 671d | rgtrsse | Will Russia use a nuclear weapon in 2024? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,049 | +$51 +1.0% | 4 |
| 671d | kdrn-691 | Will Russia use a nuclear weapon in 2024? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,049 | +$51 +1.0% | 4 |
| 671d | weor | Will Russia use a nuclear weapon in 2024? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,049 | +$51 +1.0% | 4 |
| 671d | yhpjje2 fills | Will Russia use a nuclear weapon in 2024? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $10,068 | +$102 +1.0% | 4 |
| 671d | FionaSpencer | Will Russia use a nuclear weapon in 2024? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,049 | +$51 +1.0% | 4 |
| 671d | 80637 | Will Russia use a nuclear weapon in 2024? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,039 | +$51 +1.0% | 4 |
| 671d | nightingalefinbar | Will Russia use a nuclear weapon in 2024? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,039 | +$51 +1.0% | 4 |
| 672d | Agathaa | Will Russia use a nuclear weapon in 2024? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,039 | +$51 +1.0% | 4 |
| 672d | dgzmtd | Will Russia use a nuclear weapon in 2024? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,039 | +$51 +1.0% | 4 |
| 672d | szele | Will Russia use a nuclear weapon in 2024? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,034 | +$51 +1.0% | 4 |
| 672d | zccf | Will Russia use a nuclear weapon in 2024? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,950 | +$50 +1.0% | 4 |
| 672d | weaverfrida | Will Russia use a nuclear weapon in 2024? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,049 | +$51 +1.0% | 4 |
| 674d | Nowhere-Man6 fills | Will Russia use a nuclear weapon in 2024? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $22,801 | +$282 +1.2% | 4 |
| 679d | Martselev | Will Russia use a nuclear weapon in 2024? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,037 | −$13 −1.2% | — |
| 683d | Sassenah | Will Russia use a nuclear weapon in 2024? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,893 | −$19 −1.0% | — |
| 684d | Koks-985 | Will Russia use a nuclear weapon in 2024? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,502 | −$15 −1.0% | — |
| 685d |  SirHarryOakes | Will Russia use a nuclear weapon in 2024? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,959 | −$26 −1.3% | — |
| 685d |  studmuffin6969 | Will Russia use a nuclear weapon in 2024? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,919 | −$52 −1.3% | — |
| 689d |  mr.ozi | Will Russia use a nuclear weapon in 2024? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,950 | −$50 −1.0% | — |
| 689d | Sassenah | Will Russia use a nuclear weapon in 2024? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,880 | +$33 +1.7% | 4 |
| 690d | SirHarryOakes | Will Russia use a nuclear weapon in 2024? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,500 | +$35 +2.4% | 4 |
| 691d | eeevVVV | Will Russia use a nuclear weapon in 2024? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,257 | +$31 +2.5% | 4 |
| 694d |  itsgg | Will Russia use a nuclear weapon in 2024? | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $2,149 | −$78 −3.6% | — |
| 694d | scottilicious14 fills | Will Russia use a nuclear weapon in 2024? | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $140,627 | +$5,430 +3.9% | 4 |
| 695d | SupremeRussian | Will Russia use a nuclear weapon in 2024? | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $3,037 | −$97 −3.2% | — |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Russian Federation detonates a nuclear device in an offensive capacity by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". To satisfy a "Yes" resolution, the detonation of a nuclear device must be in an offensive capacity (whether deliberate or accidental), must not be a test, and must be either claimed by the Russian Federation or considered by a preponderance of credible reporting and/or information from credible sources to be from the Russian Federation. For the purpose of this market's resolution, determination as to whether a detonation was nuclear will be made by a preponderance of credible reporting.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 0%.