Loading the chart…
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ↑3.67% | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| ↑3.69% | 100% | −37 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| ↑3.75% | 0% | −6 pts | −12 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| ↑3.73% | 100% | +38 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| ↑3.71% | 100% | −64 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| ↓3.59% | 0% | 0 pts | −48 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| ↓3.57% | 0% | — | −11 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| ↓3.61% | 0% | +17 pts | −29 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| ↓3.63% | 0% | −5 pts | −47 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 247d | pelik3 fills | ↑3.69% | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,870 | +$4 +0.1% | 4 |
| 247d | pelik3 fills | ↑3.67% | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,544 | +$5 +0.1% | 4 |
| 247d | pelik | ↑3.71% | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,173 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) is a measure of the cost of borrowing cash overnight, collateralized by US Treasury securities. SOFR is used to price loans, bonds, derivatives, and more. The SOFR rate is published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York each business day at 8:00 AM ET, for the previous business day. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Federal Reserve Bank of New York publishes a daily SOFR rate (%) equal to or above the listed value for any business day between February 17 and February 28, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as the SOFR rate is equal to or above the listed value, or when SOFR data is published for the final business day on or before February 28, 2026. If no data is published for the final business day on or before February 28, 2026 by March 07, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Business day refers to any day treated as such by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Any revisions to the daily SOFR values published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York prior to the release of SOFR data for the final business day on or before February 28, 2026 will be considered; however, these revisions will not disqualify a previously published SOFR rate from counting. Any revisions published after the release of SOFR data for the final business day on or before February 28, 2026 will not be considered. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, specifically the Secured Overnight Financing Rate Data table at https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/reference-rates/sofr. Note: This market’s resolution source publishes the SOFR rate to two decimal places (e.g. 3.65%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for ↑3.67% means the market gives it about 100%.