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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | −3 pts | 0 pts | — · 1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 716d |  Anjun | Will Trump lose Iowa but win election? | BuyNo>99¢ | $14,314 | +$14 +0.1% | 10 |
| 716d |  d1k21 | Will Trump lose Iowa but win election? | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,997 | +$3 +0.1% | 10 |
| 717d |  Anon1792681 | Will Trump lose Iowa but win election? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $9,781 | +$99 +1.0% | 10 |
| 717d | Mara | Will Trump lose Iowa but win election? | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $2,715 | +$87 +3.2% | 10 |
| 717d |  ExhaustedBoyBilly2 fills | Will Trump lose Iowa but win election? | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $6,345 | +$178 +2.8% | 11 |
| 718d |  0943 | Will Trump lose Iowa but win election? | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $12,253 | +$519 +4.2% | 11 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump loses the popular vote in Iowa, but wins the 2024 US presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in Iowa and/or the 2024 US presidential election for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 0%.