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Polymarket · WorldClosed
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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 100% | −1 pts | −3 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 316d |  bamesjond | Another MP leaves Conservative Party of Canada by December 31? | BuyYes>99¢ | $6,635 | +$7 +0.1% | 4 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if another Member of Parliament (MP) currently sitting with the Conservative Party of Canada leaves the party or caucus by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Qualifying events include instances where a Conservative MP resigns from or is expelled from the Conservative caucus, joins another party, or publicly declares independence before the market’s end date. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Conservative Party of Canada or the House of Commons of Canada; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 100%.