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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Group H (Cape Verde, Uruguay, Spain, Saudi Arabia) | 100% | +40 pts | +80 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Group A (Mexico, South Korea, South Africa, Czechia) | 0% | −5 pts | −9 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Group B (Canada, Qatar, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Switzerland) | 0% | −2 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Group C (Scotland, Brazil, Haiti, Morocco) | 0% | −3 pts | −10 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Group D (Paraguay, Türkiye, USA, Australia) | 0% | −2 pts | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Group E (Curaçao, Ecuador, Germany, Ivory Coast) | 0% | −1 pts | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Group F (Tunisia, Japan, Netherlands, Sweden) | 0% | −5 pts | −7 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Group G (New Zealand, Iran, Egypt, Belgium) | 0% | −3 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Group I (Senegal, Norway, France, Iraq) | 0% | −39 pts | −38 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Group J (Algeria, Jordan, Argentina, Austria) | 0% | −41 pts | −18 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Group K (Colombia, Congo DR, Portugal, Uzbekistan) | 0% | −4 pts | −10 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Group L (England, Ghana, Croatia, Panama) | 0% | −23 pts | −16 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Other | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 101d | sirko133 | Group I (Senegal, Norway, France, Iraq) | BuyNo62¢ → 100¢ | $12,474 | +$7,645 +61% | 6 |
| 105d |  Cupzey | Group G (New Zealand, Iran, Egypt, Belgium) | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$12 +0.6% | 4 |
| 110d | tphhh | Group A (Mexico, South Korea, South Africa, Czechia) | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,250 | +$3 +0.3% | 4 |
| 114d | omoi0i0 | Group G (New Zealand, Iran, Egypt, Belgium) | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $10,297 | +$104 +1.0% | 4 |
| 116d | omoi0i0 | Group E (Curaçao, Ecuador, Germany, Ivory Coast) | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $9,800 | +$200 +2.0% | 4 |
Lavincey30 sharesThis market will resolve according to the group from which the winning national team of the 2026 FIFA World Cup originated in the group stage. For example, if a team drawn into Group A wins the tournament, this market will resolve to “Group A”. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for Group H (Cape Verde, Uruguay, Spain, Saudi Arabia) means the market gives it about 100%.