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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Uruguay (16) | 100% | +27 pts | +95 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Argentina (1) | 0% | −3 pts | −35 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Spain (2) | 0% | 0 pts | −19 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| France (3) | 0% | 0 pts | −11 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| England (4) | 0% | 0 pts | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Portugal (5) | 0% | — | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Brazil (6) | 0% | −1 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Morocco (7) | 0% | −1 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Netherlands (8) | 0% | 0 pts | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Belgium (9) | 0% | −4 pts | −6 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Germany (10) | 0% | 0 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Croatia (11) | 0% | −3 pts | −13 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Colombia (13) | 0% | −20 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Mexico (14) | 0% | −3 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Senegal (15) | 0% | −31 pts | −17 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| USA (17) | 0% | 0 pts | −8 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Japan (18) | 0% | 0 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Switzerland (19) | 0% | 0 pts | −46 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| IR Iran (20) | 0% | −10 pts | −23 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Türkiye (22) | 0% | −20 pts | −18 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Ecuador (23) | 0% | −6 pts | −6 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Austria (24) | 0% | −18 pts | −11 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Korea Republic (25) | 0% | −4 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Australia (27) | 0% | −14 pts | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Algeria (28) | 0% | −24 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Egypt (29) | 0% | −6 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Canada (30) | 0% | −1 pts | −14 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Côte d'Ivoire (33) | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Panama (34) | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Paraguay (41) | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Scotland (42) | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Congo DR (46) | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Uzbekistan (50) | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Qatar (56) | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| South Africa (60) | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Saudi Arabia (61) | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina (64) | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Cabo Verde (67) | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Ghana (73) | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Curaçao (82) | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Haiti (83) | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| New Zealand (85) | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Team A | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Team B | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Other | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 119d |  Maximus374 | Türkiye (22) | BuyNo91¢ → 100¢ | $1,795 | +$187 +10% | 6 |
| 122d |  olegs | Morocco (7) | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,495 | +$5 +0.2% | 4 |
| 122d | olegs | Japan (18) | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,270 | +$5 +0.4% | 4 |
This market will resolve to the nation with the highest FIFA World Ranking that fails to advance from the group stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. The FIFA World Ranking in effect at the time of this market's creation will be used. “Eliminated in the group phase” means the nation does not advance to the knockout stage (i.e., does not finish first or second in its group and is not among the eight best third-placed teams that advance). If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after July 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or the group stage results cannot be determined within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for Uruguay (16) means the market gives it about 100%.