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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 545d | Orzelki | X allowed to operate in China before May? | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,307 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 547d | Dabybyiswashedup | X allowed to operate in China before May? | SellNo>99¢ | $1,606 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 549d | Dabybyiswashedup | X allowed to operate in China before May? | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,668 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 549d | joslin | X allowed to operate in China before May? | SellNo>99¢ | $1,487 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 549d | joslin | X allowed to operate in China before May? | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,489 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 552d | rowden | X allowed to operate in China before May? | SellNo>99¢ | $1,336 | −$4 −0.3% | — |
| 552d | rowden | X allowed to operate in China before May? | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,337 | +$3 +0.2% | 4 |
| 553d | trask | X allowed to operate in China before May? | SellNo>99¢ | $1,525 | −$5 −0.3% | — |
| 553d | trask | X allowed to operate in China before May? | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,527 | +$3 +0.2% | 4 |
| 557d | caiwuuu | X allowed to operate in China before May? | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,003 | +$3 +0.3% | 4 |
| 558d |  GollumGekko24 fills | X allowed to operate in China before May? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $49,546 | −$584 −1.2% | — |
| 564d | RandomJake | X allowed to operate in China before May? | SellNo>99¢ | $1,494 | −$6 −0.4% | — |
| 569d | asfhaksfj;aslkdjfa2 fills | X allowed to operate in China before May? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,839 | −$50 −1.3% | — |
| 595d | GollumGekko23 fills | X allowed to operate in China before May? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $51,938 | +$1,080 +2.1% | 4 |
| 605d | pennycc | X allowed to operate in China before May? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,952 | +$50 +2.6% | 4 |
| 617d | asfhaksfj;aslkdjfa2 fills | X allowed to operate in China before May? | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $3,874 | +$105 +2.7% | 4 |
| 618d |  scambo | X allowed to operate in China before May? | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,127 | −$34 −3.0% | — |
| 628d | Jr.Druckenmiller | X allowed to operate in China before May? | SellNo96¢ → 100¢ | $2,678 | −$99 −3.7% | — |
| 635d | MakerOne | X allowed to operate in China before May? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,548 | +$36 +2.4% | 4 |
| 640d | Jr.Druckenmiller | X allowed to operate in China before May? | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $3,000 | +$158 +5.3% | 4 |
| 640d | xcnstrategy2 fills | X allowed to operate in China before May? | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $4,750 | +$250 +5.3% | 4 |
| 641d |  How.Dare.You | X allowed to operate in China before May? | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $2,565 | +$223 +8.7% | 4 |
| 641d |  NOMOREGAMBLE | X allowed to operate in China before May? | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,150 | +$100 +8.7% | 4 |
On January 19, Elon Musk tweeted "the current situation where TikTok is allowed to operate in America, but 𝕏 is not allowed to operate in China is unbalanced" (see: https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1880975630646612254?s=46&t=Hs7p1TPQxYmmgC2MAl-H9A). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the People's Republic of China announces X/Twitter will be unbanned or if X/Twitter becomes available for use by the majority of people in the People's Republic of China by April 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement by the government of the People's Republic of China announcing that X will be unbanned will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of if/when X becomes available for use. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the People's Republic of China and X/Twitter, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 0%.