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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $100M | 100% | +2 pts | −18 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | in 435d |
| $50M | 100% | −1 pts | −13 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | in 435d |
| $200M | 100% | −1 pts | −17 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | in 435d |
| $300M | 0% | — | −22 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 435d |
| $400M | 0% | 0 pts | −20 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 435d |
| $600M | 0% | 0 pts | −24 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 435d |
| $800M | 0% | +6 pts | −11 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 435d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 227d | rovad | $200M | SellYes>99¢ | $1,902 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 227d |  scout2 fills | $200M | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,981 | +$17 +0.6% | 2 |
| 227d | Dungak0610 | $200M | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,822 | −$23 −0.8% | — |
| 227d | rovad | $50M | SellYes>99¢ | $1,067 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 227d | scout | $300M | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,180 | +$4 +0.1% | 2 |
| 227d | scout | $400M | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,431 | +$4 +0.1% | 2 |
| 227d | scout2 fills | $50M | BuyYes>99¢ | $8,128 | +$9 +0.1% | 2 |
| 227d | scout | $600M | BuyNo>99¢ | $21,947 | +$28 +0.1% | 2 |
| 227d | scout | $800M | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,664 | +$7 +0.1% | 2 |
| 227d | scout | $100M | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,725 | +$4 +0.2% | 2 |
| 227d |  The-Joker | $100M | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,149 | +$36 +3.1% | 2 |
| 227d |  Infringe | $200M | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $1,636 | +$123 +7.5% | 2 |
| 227d |  Burnmoneyuser | $200M | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $4,824 | +$363 +7.5% | 2 |
| 227d | rovad | $200M | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $1,010 | +$80 +7.9% | 2 |
| 227d | Infringe | $100M | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,052 | +$44 +4.2% | 2 |
| 228d | stealer | $50M | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,773 | +$47 +2.7% | 2 |
| 228d |  leleko2k2 fills | $50M | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $3,248 | +$171 +5.3% | 2 |
| 229d |  iForgor | $100M | BuyYes67¢ → 100¢ | $1,107 | +$548 +49% | 2 |
| 229d | Burnmoneyuser | $50M | BuyYes82¢ → 100¢ | $1,430 | +$315 +22% | 2 |
| 229d | Burnmoneyuser | $100M | BuyYes65¢ → 100¢ | $2,163 | +$1,187 +55% | 2 |
| 232d | Aodjrne | $50M | BuyYes65¢ → 100¢ | $2,989 | +$1,645 +55% | 2 |
| 232d | tryangels | $50M | BuyYes48¢ → 100¢ | $1,000 | +$1,094 +109% | 2 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Yellow's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Yellow (https://x.com/Yellow) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for $100M means the market gives it about 100%.