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| Market | Holding | Paid → now | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the median home value in the San Francisco Metro area be less than $1,060,000 by February 1?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 13 | 39¢ → 100¢ | $13 | +$8 +159% |
| Will the median home value in Miami be less than $975,000 by February 1?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 5 | 91¢ → 100¢ | $5 | +$0 +9.3% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Ends in 68d | Yes | 10 | 52¢ → 6¢ | $1 | −$4 −89% |
| Will Grok 4.20 not be released by January 31, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 9 | 58¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$5 −100% |
| Grok 4.20 released by January 31?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 10 | 51¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$5 −100% |
| US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 11 | 47¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$5 −100% |
| When | Market | Bet | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 270d | Will Trump say "Martin Luther King" in January? | SellYes6¢ | $0 |
| 279d | Will Grok 4.20 not be released by January 31, 2026? | SellYes50¢ | $2 |
| 279d | Will Grok 4.20 not be released by January 31, 2026? | SellYes50¢ | $3 |
| 281d | Will Trump say "Martin Luther King" in January? | BuyYes60¢ | $5 |
| 282d | US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? | BuyYes47¢ | $5 |
| 282d | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BuyYes52¢ | $5 |
| 282d | Will the median home value in the San Francisco Metro area be less than $1,060,000 by February 1? | BuyYes39¢ | $5 |
| 282d | Will the median home value in Miami be less than $975,000 by February 1? | BuyNo91¢ | $5 |
| 282d | Grok 4.20 released by January 31? | BuyYes51¢ | $5 |
| 282d | Will Grok 4.20 not be released by January 31, 2026? | BuyNo58¢ | $5 |
| 282d | Will Grok 4.20 not be released by January 31, 2026? | BuyYes54¢ | $5 |
Sources: Polymarket's Data API (positions, closed positions, activity, portfolio value and the all-time leaderboard) and its public profiles, read every five minutes. Recent hit rate is the share of the wallet's last 2 closed positions that made money. All-time profit and rank are Polymarket's own.