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Polymarket wallet 0x2080562fa829186483296a921a8cc64ac0e1c6a9 · on Polymarket since Feb 10, 2026 · also shown as Complicated-Yoyo
| Market | Holding | Paid → now | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.3 released by February 28, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 10 | 70¢ → 100¢ | $10 | +$3 +43% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 7:30AM-7:45AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 15 | 65¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$10 −100% |
| Will Russia enter Bilytske by February 28?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 6 | 82¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$5 −100% |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 23?Settled - ready to redeem | Up | 20 | 49¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$10 −100% |
| Cavaliers vs. ThunderSettled - ready to redeem | Cavaliers | 13 | 60¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$8 −100% |
| When | Market | Bet | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 241d | Will Russia enter Bilytske by February 28? | BuyNo82¢ | $5 |
| 244d | GPT-5.3 released by February 28, 2026? | BuyNo70¢ | $2 |
| 244d | Cavaliers vs. Thunder | BuyCavaliers60¢ | $8 |
| 244d | GPT-5.3 released by February 28, 2026? | BuyNo70¢ | $1 |
| 244d | GPT-5.3 released by February 28, 2026? | BuyNo70¢ | $4 |
| 244d | S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 23? | BuyUp49¢ | $10 |
| 244d | Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 21, 2026? | SellNo99¢ | $31 |
| 245d | Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 21, 2026? | BuyNo51¢ | $16 |
| 255d | Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET | BuyUp64¢ | $10 |
| 255d | Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET | SellDown99¢ | $21 |
| 255d | Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET | BuyDown92¢ | $20 |
| 255d | Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET | SellUp99¢ | $4 |
| 255d | Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET | SellUp88¢ | $11 |
| 255d | Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET | BuyUp59¢ | $10 |
Sources: Polymarket's Data API (positions, closed positions, activity, portfolio value and the all-time leaderboard) and its public profiles, read every five minutes. Recent hit rate is the share of the wallet's last 3 closed positions that made money. All-time profit and rank are Polymarket's own.