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Polymarket wallet 0x4adf4a9de7d6a4f47cba19ecc644dd3156070df3 · on Polymarket since Dec 9, 2025 · also shown as Thoughtful-Waffle
| Market | Holding | Paid → now | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Epstein blackmail evidence released by March 31?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 15 | 68¢ → 100¢ | $15 | +$5 +46% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2025?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 12 | 86¢ → 100¢ | $12 | +$2 +16% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2025?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 10 | 96¢ → 100¢ | $10 | +$0 +4.0% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 10 | 98¢ → 100¢ | $10 | +$0 +2.2% |
| Will Solana reach $260 before 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 10 | 98¢ → 100¢ | $10 | +$0 +2.0% |
| Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 10 | 99¢ → 100¢ | $10 | +$0 +1.4% |
| XRP Up or Down - December 17, 4PM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 10 | >99¢ → 100¢ | $10 | +$0 +0.1% |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,100 on December 17?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 10 | >99¢ → 100¢ | $10 | +$0 +0.1% |
| Suns vs. PelicansSettled - ready to redeem | Suns | 10 | >99¢ → 100¢ | $10 | +$0 +0.1% |
| When | Market | Bet | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 300d | Suns vs. Pelicans | BuySuns>99¢ | $10 |
| 303d | Epstein blackmail evidence released by March 31? | BuyYes68¢ | $10 |
| 304d | XRP Up or Down - December 17, 4PM ET | BuyDown>99¢ | $10 |
| 305d | Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,100 on December 17? | BuyNo>99¢ | $10 |
| 313d | Bills vs. Patriots | BuyBills>99¢ | $10 |
| 314d | Northern Kentucky Norse vs. Bellarmine Knights: O/U 153.5 | BuyOver>99¢ | $10 |
| 314d | Northern Kentucky Norse vs. Bellarmine Knights: O/U 152.5 | BuyOver>99¢ | $10 |
| 315d | Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? | BuyNo99¢ | $10 |
| 317d | Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? | BuyYes97¢ | $10 |
| 318d | Will Solana reach $260 before 2026? | BuyNo98¢ | $10 |
| 318d | Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2025? | BuyNo96¢ | $10 |
| 318d | Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? | BuyNo98¢ | $10 |
| 318d | Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2025? | BuyNo86¢ | $10 |
Sources: Polymarket's Data API (positions, closed positions, activity, portfolio value and the all-time leaderboard) and its public profiles, read every five minutes. Recent hit rate is the share of the wallet's last 4 closed positions that made money. All-time profit and rank are Polymarket's own.