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Polymarket wallet 0x78471cccdb9b8b19aceefb4aedeaa93f2c5db33a · on Polymarket since Jan 18, 2026 · also shown as Fatal-Throne
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| Market | Holding | Paid → now | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 9?Settled - ready to redeem | Up | 2 | 54¢ → 100¢ | $2 | +$1 +85% |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 11?Settled - ready to redeem | Down | 3 | 39¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 3:40AM-3:45AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 3 | 36¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1 −100% |
| Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on March 9?Settled - ready to redeem | Down | 1 | 81¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 9:20AM-9:25AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 6 | 18¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1 −100% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 2 | 44¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1 −100% |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 143 | 1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1 −100% |
| When | Market | Bet | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 160d | Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? | BuyNo44¢ | $1 |
| 197d | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting? | BuyYes1¢ | $1 |
| 199d | S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 9? | BuyUp54¢ | $1 |
| 227d | S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 11? | BuyDown39¢ | $1 |
| 229d | Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on March 9? | BuyDown81¢ | $1 |
| 231d | Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET | BuyUp30¢ | $1 |
| 231d | Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET | BuyDown18¢ | $1 |
| 231d | Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET | BuyDown1¢ | $1 |
| 231d | Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET | BuyDown72¢ | $1 |
| 231d | Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET | BuyUp36¢ | $1 |
Sources: Polymarket's Data API (positions, closed positions, activity, portfolio value and the all-time leaderboard) and its public profiles, read every five minutes. Recent hit rate is the share of the wallet's last 2 closed positions that made money. All-time profit and rank are Polymarket's own.