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Polymarket wallet 0xb8a15d6002f37d2456bed77a386dc0957a3a4985 · on Polymarket since Jan 14, 2026 · also shown as Nautical-Necessity
| Market | Holding | Paid → now | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 26 | 93¢ → 100¢ | $26 | +$2 +7.6% |
| XRP Up or Down - January 19, 10:15PM-10:30PM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 5 | 73¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$4 −100% |
| US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 36 | 42¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$15 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 10:15PM-10:30PM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 6 | 62¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$4 −100% |
| Solana Up or Down - January 19, 3:00AM-3:15AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 318 | 3¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$10 −100% |
| Solana Up or Down - January 19, 3:15AM-3:30AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 50 | 6¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$3 −100% |
| When | Market | Bet | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 233d | Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | BuyNo93¢ | $24 |
| 258d | Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026? | BuyNo88¢ | $21 |
| 276d | XRP Up or Down - January 19, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET | BuyUp72¢ | $4 |
| 276d | Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET | BuyUp61¢ | $4 |
| 276d | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? | BuyNo94¢ | $10 |
| 276d | US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? | BuyNo93¢ | $10 |
| 277d | Solana Up or Down - January 19, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET | BuyDown6¢ | $3 |
| 277d | Solana Up or Down - January 19, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET | BuyUp3¢ | $10 |
| 277d | Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET | BuyDown87¢ | $20 |
| 280d | Iran strike on US military by January 31? | SellNo78¢ | $38 |
| 281d | US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026? | BuyYes42¢ | $15 |
| 281d | Iran strike on US military by January 31? | BuyNo41¢ | $20 |
Sources: Polymarket's Data API (positions, closed positions, activity, portfolio value and the all-time leaderboard) and its public profiles, read every five minutes. Recent hit rate is the share of the wallet's last 5 closed positions that made money. All-time profit and rank are Polymarket's own.