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Polymarket wallet 0xd9431926d7c7524fe86b580a0afbce45d11a1c9c · on Polymarket since Nov 18, 2025 · also shown as Chief-Reluctance
| Market | Holding | Paid → now | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on December 5?Settled - ready to redeem | Down | 15 | 38¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$6 −100% |
| DAX (DAX) Up or Down on February 5?Settled - ready to redeem | Up | 18 | 50¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$9 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 1PM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 3,087 | 50¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1,544 −100% |
| Ethereum Up or Down - November 18, 11:30PM-11:45PM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 1,722 | 50¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$861 −100% |
| Ethereum Up or Down - January 25, 10PM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 3,256 | 50¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1,628 −100% |
| Meta (META) Up or Down on November 18?Settled - ready to redeem | Up | 1,625 | 50¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$813 −100% |
| Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on November 18?Settled - ready to redeem | Up | 1,739 | 50¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$869 −100% |
| Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on December 5?Settled - ready to redeem | Up | 17 | 36¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$6 −100% |
| XRP Up or Down - November 18, 11:30PM-11:45PM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 1,635 | 50¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$818 −100% |
| When | Market | Bet | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 260d | Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on February 5? | BuyDown50¢ | $10 |
| 260d | DAX (DAX) Up or Down on February 5? | BuyUp50¢ | $9 |
| 270d | XRP Up or Down - January 25, 10PM ET | BuyDown50¢ | $1,500 |
| 270d | Ethereum Up or Down - January 25, 10PM ET | BuyUp50¢ | $1,628 |
| 271d | Ethereum Up or Down - January 25, 1PM ET | BuyDown50¢ | $1,575 |
| 271d | Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 1PM ET | BuyUp50¢ | $1,544 |
| 322d | Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on December 5? | BuyUp36¢ | $6 |
| 322d | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on December 5? | BuyDown38¢ | $6 |
| 338d | XRP Up or Down - November 18, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET | BuyUp50¢ | $818 |
| 338d | Ethereum Up or Down - November 18, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET | BuyUp50¢ | $861 |
| 339d | Meta (META) Up or Down on November 18? | BuyUp50¢ | $813 |
| 339d | Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on November 18? | BuyUp50¢ | $869 |
Sources: Polymarket's Data API (positions, closed positions, activity, portfolio value and the all-time leaderboard) and its public profiles, read every five minutes. Recent hit rate is the share of the wallet's last 3 closed positions that made money. All-time profit and rank are Polymarket's own.