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Polymarket wallet 0xf09d6d782938e64fa3420cc593e7965465a27762 · on Polymarket since Nov 25, 2025 · also shown as Heavy-Guideline
| Market | Holding | Paid → now | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?Ends in 68d | Yes | 85 | 23¢ → 6¢ | $5 | −$15 −77% |
| Any country withdraws from EU before 2027?Ends in 68d | Yes | 20 | 10¢ → 2¢ | $0 | −$2 −84% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on December 3?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 5 | 20¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1 −100% |
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by March 31?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 295 | 8¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$25 −100% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 91 | 1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1 −100% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on December 3?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 4 | 25¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1 −100% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 7 | 27¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2 −100% |
| When | Market | Bet | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 319d | Any country withdraws from EU before 2027? | BuyYes10¢ | $2 |
| 324d | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by March 31? | BuyYes4¢ | $5 |
| 326d | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on December 3? | BuyYes25¢ | $1 |
| 327d | Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? | BuyYes27¢ | $2 |
| 327d | Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? | BuyYes1¢ | $1 |
| 327d | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on December 3? | BuyYes20¢ | $1 |
| 330d | Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in November? | SellYes1¢ | $0 |
| 333d | Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in November? | BuyYes10¢ | $1 |
| 333d | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? | BuyYes23¢ | $20 |
| 333d | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by March 31? | BuyYes12¢ | $20 |
Sources: Polymarket's Data API (positions, closed positions, activity, portfolio value and the all-time leaderboard) and its public profiles, read every five minutes. Recent hit rate is the share of the wallet's last 1 closed positions that made money. All-time profit and rank are Polymarket's own.