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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.D. Vance | 22% | +1 pts | 21¢ · 22¢ (1¢) | $8.52K | in 1115d |
| Gavin Newsom | 11% | +1 pts | 10¢ · 11¢ (1¢) | $7.37K | in 1115d |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 10% | 0 pts | 10¢ · 10¢ (<1¢) | $4.69K | in 1115d |
| Marco Rubio | 10% | 0 pts | 10¢ · 10¢ (<1¢) | $60.5K | in 1115d |
| Jon Ossoff | 10% | −1 pts | 9¢ · 10¢ (<1¢) | $12.5K | in 1115d |
| Kamala Harris | 4% | 0 pts | 4¢ · 4¢ (<1¢) | $2.22K | in 1115d |
| Josh Shapiro | 3% | 0 pts | 3¢ · 3¢ (<1¢) | $87.5 | in 1115d |
| Andy Beshear | 3% | 0 pts | 3¢ · 3¢ (<1¢) | $2.13K | in 1115d |
| Pete Buttigieg | 3% | 0 pts | 3¢ · 3¢ (<1¢) | $16K | in 1115d |
| Donald J. Trump | 3% | 0 pts | 3¢ · 3¢ (<1¢) | $14.4K | in 1115d |
| Mark Kelly | 3% | 0 pts | 3¢ · 3¢ (<1¢) | $16.3K | in 1115d |
| Ron DeSantis | 2% | 0 pts | 2¢ · 2¢ (<1¢) | $3.59K | in 1115d |
| Rahm Emanuel | 2% | 0 pts | 1¢ · 2¢ (1¢) | $1.48K | in 1115d |
| Wes Moore | 2% | 0 pts | 1¢ · 2¢ (<1¢) | $387 | in 1115d |
| James Talarico | 2% | +1 pts | 1¢ · 2¢ (1¢) | $12.3K | in 1115d |
| Thomas Massie | 1% | 0 pts | 0¢ · 1¢ (1¢) | $2.53K | in 1115d |
| Hunter Biden | 1% | 0 pts | 0¢ · 1¢ (1¢) | $0 | in 1115d |
| Ro Khanna | 1% | 0 pts | 0¢ · 1¢ (1¢) | $93.5 | in 1115d |
| Ted Cruz | 1% | 0 pts | 0¢ · 1¢ (1¢) | $0 | in 1115d |
| Doug Burgum | 1% | 0 pts | 0¢ · 1¢ (1¢) | $0 | in 1115d |
| J.B. Pritzker | 1% | 0 pts | 1¢ · 1¢ (<1¢) | $1.66K | in 1115d |
| Glenn Youngkin | 1% | +1 pts | 1¢ · 1¢ (<1¢) | $2.93K | in 1115d |
| Donald J. Trump Jr. | 1% | 0 pts | 1¢ · 1¢ (<1¢) | $21K | in 1115d |
| Jamie Dimon | 1% | 0 pts | <1¢ · 1¢ (<1¢) | $26.8K | in 1115d |
| Tucker Carlson | 1% | 0 pts | 1¢ · 1¢ (<1¢) | $24.2K | in 1115d |
| Gretchen Whitmer | 1% | 0 pts | 1¢ · 1¢ (<1¢) | $500 | in 1115d |
| Tulsi Gabbard | 1% | 0 pts | 1¢ · 1¢ (<1¢) | $4.52K | in 1115d |
| Stephen A. Smith | 1% | 0 pts | <1¢ · 1¢ (<1¢) | $54.5K | in 1115d |
| Nikki Haley | <1% | 0 pts | <1¢ · 1¢ (<1¢) | $50.5K | in 1115d |
| Vivek Ramaswamy | <1% | 0 pts | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | $0 | in 1115d |
| Greg Abbott | <1% | 0 pts | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | $0 | in 1115d |
| Tim Walz | <1% | 0 pts | 0¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | $30.9K | in 1115d |
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap | Lock $1 for |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.D. Vance | 22% | 20% | 2 pts | $1.009 |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 10% | 13% | 3 pts | $0.981 |
| Jon Ossoff | 10% | 10% | 1 pts | $1.006 |
| Gavin Newsom | 11% | 9% | 2 pts | $1.010 |
| Marco Rubio | 10% | 8% | 2 pts | $0.999 |
| Kamala Harris | 4% | 4% | 0 pts | $1.006 |
| Josh Shapiro | 3% | 3% | 0 pts | $1.004 |
| Pete Buttigieg | 3% | 3% | 0 pts | $1.006 |
| Ron DeSantis | 2% | 2% | 0 pts | $1.003 |
| Andy Beshear | 3% | 2% | 1 pts | $1.001 |
| Tucker Carlson | 1% | 2% | 1 pts | $0.995 |
| James Talarico | 2% | 2% | 0 pts | $1.007 |
| Donald J. Trump | 3% | 1% | 1 pts | $0.995 |
| Mark Kelly | 3% | 1% | 1 pts | $0.995 |
| Wes Moore | 2% | 1% | 1 pts | $1.001 |
| Ro Khanna | 1% | 1% | 0 pts | $1.003 |
| Thomas Massie | 1% | 1% | 0 pts | $1.003 |
| J.B. Pritzker | 1% | 1% | 0 pts | $1.005 |
| Ted Cruz | 1% | 1% | 0 pts | $1.005 |
| Rahm Emanuel | 2% | 1% | 1 pts | $0.998 |
| Doug Burgum | 1% | <1% | 1 pts | — |
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If Gavin Newsom is the next person inaugurated as President for the term beginning in 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Sources: Kalshi's trade API: events, candlesticks and trades, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 22¢ for J.D. Vance means the market gives it about 22%.