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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JD Vance | 21% | +1 pts | −1 pts | 20¢ · 21¢ (<1¢) | $9.27K | in 746d |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 13% | 0 pts | −1 pts | 13¢ · 13¢ (<1¢) | $4.76K | in 746d |
| Gavin Newsom | 10% | 0 pts | +1 pts | 9¢ · 10¢ (1¢) | $20K | in 746d |
| Jon Ossoff | 10% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 9¢ · 10¢ (<1¢) | $51.5K | in 746d |
| Marco Rubio | 9% | 0 pts | +1 pts | 9¢ · 9¢ (<1¢) | $3.46K | in 746d |
| Kamala Harris | 4% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 4¢ · 4¢ (<1¢) | $14.4K | in 746d |
| Josh Shapiro | 3% | — | 0 pts | 3¢ · 3¢ (<1¢) | $1.78K | in 746d |
| Ron DeSantis | 3% | +1 pts | +1 pts | 2¢ · 4¢ (1¢) | $31.1K | in 746d |
| Pete Buttigieg | 3% | — | — | 3¢ · 3¢ (<1¢) | $57.6 | in 746d |
| Andy Beshear | 2% | — | 0 pts | 2¢ · 2¢ (<1¢) | $234 | in 746d |
| James Talarico | 2% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 2¢ · 2¢ (<1¢) | $490 | in 746d |
| Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson | 2% | — | — | 2¢ · 2¢ (<1¢) | $2.27K | in 746d |
| Donald Trump | 1% | — | 0 pts | 1¢ · 2¢ (<1¢) | $704 | in 746d |
| Tucker Carlson | 1% | — | 0 pts | 1¢ · 2¢ (<1¢) | $152 | in 746d |
| Mark Kelly | 1% | — | 0 pts | 1¢ · 1¢ (<1¢) | — | in 746d |
| Raphael Warnock | 1% | — | 0 pts | 1¢ · 1¢ (<1¢) | $31.4 | in 746d |
| Wes Moore | 1% | — | 0 pts | 1¢ · 1¢ (<1¢) | $774 | in 746d |
| Thomas Massie | 1% | — | 0 pts | 1¢ · 1¢ (<1¢) | $76.8 | in 746d |
| Ro Khanna | 1% | — | — | 1¢ · 1¢ (<1¢) | $271 | in 746d |
| JB Pritzker | 1% | — | 0 pts | 1¢ · 1¢ (<1¢) | $311 | in 746d |
| Ted Cruz | 1% | — | 0 pts | 1¢ · 1¢ (<1¢) | $105 | in 746d |
| Ivanka Trump | 1% | 0 pts | — | 1¢ · 1¢ (<1¢) | $1.68K | in 746d |
| Rahm Emanuel | 1% | — | — | 1¢ · 1¢ (<1¢) | $17.3K | in 745d |
| Donald Trump Jr. | 1% | — | — | 1¢ · 1¢ (<1¢) | $2.19K | in 746d |
| Gretchen Whitmer | <1% | — | — | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | $556 | in 746d |
| Jamie Dimon | <1% | — | 0 pts | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | $33.1 | in 746d |
| Glenn Youngkin | <1% | — | — | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | $395 | in 746d |
| Tulsi Gabbard | <1% | — | — | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | $1.82K | in 746d |
| Greg Abbott | <1% | — | — | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | $342 | in 746d |
| Elon Musk | <1% | — | — | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | $945 | in 746d |
| Michelle Obama | <1% | — | — | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | $2.39K | in 746d |
| Stephen Smith | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 746d |
| Nikki Haley | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 746d |
| Tim Walz | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | $633 | in 746d |
| Vivek Ramaswamy | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | $470 | in 746d |
| LeBron James | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | $458 | in 746d |
| Kim Kardashian | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | $457 | in 746d |
| Zohran Mamdani | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 746d |
| Eric Trump | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 746d |
| Pete Hegseth | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | $586 | in 746d |
| Jalen Brunson | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 746d |
| Abigail Spanberger | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 746d |
| Hakeem Jeffries | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 746d |
| Elissa Slotkin | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 746d |
| Adam Schiff | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 746d |
| Josh Stein | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 746d |
| Alex Padilla | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 746d |
| Candace Owens | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 746d |
| Tim Scott | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 746d |
| Mike Johnson | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 746d |
| Doug Burgum | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 746d |
| Tom Cotton | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 746d |
| John N. Kennedy | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | $1.11K | in 746d |
| Rick Scott | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 746d |
| Outcome | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap | Lock $1 for |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JD Vance | 21% | 21% | 0 pts | $1.019 |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 13% | 9% | 3 pts | $0.980 |
| Gavin Newsom | 10% | 13% | 3 pts | $0.986 |
| Jon Ossoff | 10% | 9% | 0 pts | $1.012 |
| Marco Rubio | 9% | 10% | 1 pts | $1.005 |
| Kamala Harris | 4% | 4% | 0 pts | $1.003 |
| Josh Shapiro | 3% | 3% | 0 pts | $1.003 |
| Ron DeSantis | 3% | 3% | 0 pts | $1.009 |
| Pete Buttigieg | 3% | 3% | 0 pts | $1.005 |
| Andy Beshear | 2% | 3% | 0 pts | $1.003 |
| James Talarico | 2% | 3% | 1 pts | $1.010 |
| Donald Trump | 1% | 3% | 1 pts | $0.996 |
| Tucker Carlson | 1% | 1% | 1 pts | $0.997 |
| Mark Kelly | 1% | 3% | 1 pts | $0.995 |
| Wes Moore | 1% | 1% | 0 pts | $1.002 |
| Thomas Massie | 1% | 1% | 0 pts | $1.001 |
| Ro Khanna | 1% | 1% | 0 pts | $1.003 |
| JB Pritzker | 1% | 2% | 1 pts | $0.999 |
| Ted Cruz | 1% | 1% | 0 pts | $1.005 |
| Rahm Emanuel | 1% | 2% | 1 pts | $0.998 |
| Jamie Dimon | <1% | 1% | 1 pts | $1.009 |
| Doug Burgum | <1% | 1% | 1 pts | — |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 53m | 0xa47A9b2 fills | Gavin Newsom | BuyYes9¢ → 10¢ | $2,885 | +$85 +3.0% | 30 |
| 3h | Ferwhere2 fills | Ron DeSantis | BuyYes3¢ | $2,600 | +$6 +0.2% | 24 |
| 5h | Inhabit | JD Vance | BuyYes20¢ → 21¢ | $1,000 | +$7 +0.7% | 19 |
| 8h |  truthteller | Jon Ossoff | SellYes9¢ → 10¢ | $4,361 | −$184 −4.2% | — |
| 20h | everliver | Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson | SellNo98¢ | $1,491 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 23h | BrightJorge | Josh Shapiro | SellNo97¢ | $1,211 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 1d | 111222 fills | Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | BuyNo87¢ | $4,940 | +$24 +0.5% | 19 |
| 2d |  Roflan-ludoman | Gavin Newsom | BuyYes9¢ → 10¢ | $1,877 | +$43 +2.3% | 22 |
| 2d | xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx | JD Vance | SellNo80¢ → 79¢ | $2,717 | +$15 +0.6% | — |
| 2d | Polimak | Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson | BuyNo99¢ → 98¢ | $3,000 | −$2 −0.1% | 11 |
| 2d | Connorg | Greg Abbott | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,012 | −$1 −0.1% | 10 |
| 3d |  bifurcatio | Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | BuyNo87¢ | $13,178 | +$53 +0.4% | 19 |
| 3d | Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | Gavin Newsom | SellNo91¢ → 90¢ | $1,216 | +$8 +0.7% | — |
| 3d | J-E-R | Jon Ossoff | BuyYes9¢ → 10¢ | $1,080 | +$60 +5.6% | 12 |
| 3d | Varalant | Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson | BuyNo99¢ → 98¢ | $2,000 | −$1 −0.1% | 11 |
| 3d | fgtf65rrtfdd | Pete Buttigieg | SellNo97¢ | $2,819 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 3d | aaaaaaaaaa4 fills | Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | BuyYes13¢ | $6,792 | −$255 −3.7% | 43 |
| 3d |  risk-manager | Gavin Newsom | BuyNo91¢ → 90¢ | $1,365 | −$9 −0.7% | 12 |
| 4d |  Rex416 | Pete Buttigieg | SellNo97¢ | $1,458 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 4d | tugator | Michelle Obama | BuyNo>99¢ | $19,980 | −$10 −0.1% | 10 |
| 4d | ZumbaGirl | Josh Shapiro | SellNo97¢ | $1,154 | $0 0.0% | — |
| 4d | ZumbaGirl | Kamala Harris | SellNo96¢ | $1,693 | −$4 −0.3% | — |
| 4d | Pokrw007 | Gavin Newsom | BuyNo91¢ → 90¢ | $1,901 | −$13 −0.7% | 12 |
| 4d | betstaker | JD Vance | SellNo80¢ → 79¢ | $1,449 | +$5 +0.3% | — |
| 4d | lastminwin | Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | BuyNo87¢ | $7,176 | +$37 +0.5% | 19 |
| 5d | frikerclo | Pete Buttigieg | SellNo97¢ | $2,118 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 5d |  PantheraUncia | Marco Rubio | BuyYes8¢ → 9¢ | $1,059 | +$98 +9.3% | 30 |
| 5d | RxOV6 | Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson | BuyNo99¢ → 98¢ | $1,800 | −$1 −0.1% | 11 |
| 5d | RxOV6 | Donald Trump | BuyNo99¢ | $2,000 | −$5 −0.3% | 11 |
| 5d | DonDon7563 | Pete Buttigieg | SellNo97¢ | $2,187 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 5d | chivoexpiatorio | Jon Ossoff | BuyYes10¢ | $1,196 | −$23 −2.0% | 13 |
| 6d | ziler | Marco Rubio | SellNo92¢ → 91¢ | $1,949 | +$19 +1.0% | — |
| 7d | Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | Jon Ossoff | SellNo91¢ | $1,667 | +$7 +0.4% | — |
| 7d | ZumbaGirl | Kamala Harris | BuyNo96¢ | $1,700 | −$3 −0.2% | 11 |
| 7d | ziler | Marco Rubio | BuyNo92¢ → 91¢ | $1,950 | −$20 −1.0% | 15 |
| 7d | frikerclo | Pete Buttigieg | BuyNo97¢ | $2,120 | −$1 −0.1% | 12 |
| 8d | Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | Jon Ossoff | BuyNo90¢ → 91¢ | $1,808 | +$2 +0.1% | 11 |
| 8d | bifurcatio | Jon Ossoff | BuyNo90¢ → 91¢ | $2,869 | +$4 +0.1% | 11 |
| 8d | bifurcatio | Gavin Newsom | BuyNo91¢ → 90¢ | $1,629 | −$11 −0.7% | 12 |
| 8d | marcelin20272 fills | JD Vance | SellYes22¢ → 21¢ | $3,701 | +$185 +5.0% | — |
| 8d | crayven | Jon Ossoff | SellYes10¢ | $1,369 | +$12 +0.9% | — |
| 9d | WERTY-339 | Ivanka Trump | SellNo99¢ | $1,896 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 9d | lastminwin | Gavin Newsom | BuyNo91¢ → 90¢ | $2,875 | −$16 −0.6% | 13 |
| 9d | Falima | Michelle Obama | SellNo>99¢ | $2,475 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 9d | konsomida | JD Vance | SellNo78¢ → 79¢ | $1,548 | −$33 −2.1% | — |
| 10d | Boey | Jon Ossoff | SellYes10¢ | $1,750 | +$61 +3.5% | — |
| 10d | aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa1 | Nikki Haley | SellNo>99¢ | $2,882 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 10d | dfehgt64ef | Kamala Harris | SellNo96¢ | $2,101 | −$8 −0.4% | — |
| 10d | ErdoganTurkish | Pete Buttigieg | SellNo97¢ | $2,917 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 10d | Angerbird | Kamala Harris | SellNo95¢ → 96¢ | $2,947 | −$14 −0.5% | — |
| 10d | Angerbird | Kamala Harris | BuyNo96¢ | $2,950 | +$11 +0.4% | 12 |
| 11d |  mombil | JD Vance | SellYes23¢ → 21¢ | $3,063 | +$272 +8.9% | — |
| 11d | Ventro | Pete Buttigieg | SellNo97¢ | $4,034 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 11d | Avatar | Ivanka Trump | BuyNo100¢ → 99¢ | $2,370 | −$4 −0.2% | 10 |
| 11d | Avatar | Donald Trump Jr. | BuyNo>99¢ → 99¢ | $1,350 | −$1 −0.1% | 10 |
| 11d | ErdoganTurkish | Pete Buttigieg | BuyNo97¢ | $2,920 | −$2 −0.1% | 12 |
| 12d | Verifik | Michelle Obama | SellNo>99¢ | $3,551 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 12d | dsgfdh764eesrggfh | Pete Buttigieg | SellNo97¢ | $4,763 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 12d | WERTY-339 | Ivanka Trump | BuyNo100¢ → 99¢ | $1,900 | −$3 −0.2% | 10 |
| 12d | WERTY-339 | Donald Trump Jr. | BuyNo100¢ → 99¢ | $1,400 | −$1 −0.1% | 10 |
ScottyNooo102,809 sharesThe 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 21¢ for JD Vance means the market gives it about 21%.